Within the framework of "Chariots of Fire," the IDF's month-long war exercise currently simulating war on all of Israel's fronts, the army is expected to drill an airstrike in Iran. The special flyover is scheduled to take place during the fourth week of the countrywide exercise, between May 29 and June 2.
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The IDF presently has several attack plans pertaining to Iran, but senior defense officials believe the army needs at least one year to finalize the preparations for the most basic plan, and even longer to complete preparations for the most optimal attack plan. According to information obtained by Israel, the Iranian nuclear project was making progress, albeit at a relatively moderate pace. The assessment in Israel is that Iran can break through to a nuclear bomb within a matter of weeks and that it already has enough low-grade enriched uranium for two nuclear bombs and enough high-grade material enriched to over 60% for one bomb.
Under the current international conditions, Israel is the only country in the world acting to reduce Iran's nuclear capabilities. As for nuclear talks between Tehran and world powers, spearheaded by the United States, IDF officials believe the sides have reached a real dead end, predicated on principles from which both sides cannot easily retreat. With that, however, the messages Israel has received from the US are that it wants to exhaust all diplomatic avenues with Iran at this stage.
The preparations for "Chariots of Fire" began around six months ago. Initially intended to be held throughout May 2021 but was postponed and later canceled altogether due to Operation Guardian of the Walls in Gaza. This time, too, in light of the complex security situation and ongoing wave of Palestinian terror over the past two months, IDF officials considered canceling the drill again but ultimately decided to hold it while accounting for the present situation.
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