Even though the differences between the election systems in Israel and the United States are immense, this time, the outcome of both countries' elections will be identical. Millions of Americans will go out and vote, thus bringing the midterms to their peak and end.
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Who is going to be elected? All 435 members of the House of Representatives (the lower house of the United States Congress) in Washington, DC, 35 of the 100 Members of the Senate (the upper house of the United States Congress), 36 governors, as well as candidates for other positions all over the country, such as attorney generals and secretaries of state.
The voting has been underway for the past few weeks via email and post office, and most early voters are commonly believed to be Democrats. Based on experience, voter turnout will be approximately 40% – 10 to 20 points lower than in the presidential elections.
Midterms in the US are held two years after the presidential elections, hence their name. According to all forecasts and polls, the right-wing, conservative, and religious Republicans are about to defeat the Democrats, led by US President Joe Biden, and win the elections.
According to the most cautious estimates, the Republicans' win will be narrow yet secure, resulting in a majority of 51 seats in the Senate. Others predict their majority will be larger, with 54 seats dyed the Republican color red, assuring the party complete control of the upper house.
Regarding the House of Representatives, the situation of the blue party – the Democrats – is even worse. They are expected to have several dozen seats fewer than their opponents across the aisle. The Republicans are even predicted to have a clear majority of the governors. In short, a red wave is about to wash over the United States.
The American model of government significantly weakens a president that does not have a majority in Congress. This is all the more apparent in the case of Biden, who is considered weak even though he controls both chambers. So, come January 2023, when the new Congress assumes office, every move the president wishes to make – and he needs to run most of his political actions and appointments by Congress – will likely be stopped in its tracks by the Republicans. So, Biden's final two years in office will be even more difficult.
Biden is one of the leading causes of the Democrats' predicted downfall. The Republicans all over the US are focusing all their firepower on blaming him regarding three main issues.
The first issue they have run on, as is customary in the United States, is the economy. Inflation began even before Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, as a result of, among other reasons, the Biden Plan to Combat COVID-19 being too expensive. According to some economists, the US government simply printed too much money, which caused prices to rise. Then came the war between Russia and Ukraine that hit the American people where it hurt most – their gas tank. In a country so huge that a two–hour drive is considered short, the upsurge in gas prices became a catastrophe.
Biden refrained from increasing the United States' independent production of natural gas and oil due to opposition from his party's Left wing. He also failed to procure alternatives outside the US, such as Saudi Arabia. As a result, prices, particularly of gas, skyrocketed, and the market, along with Biden's popularity, ran into the ground.
The next issue is immigration. Approximately two million people have illegally entered the US since the start of Biden's presidency less than two years ago. Neither Biden nor anyone on his behalf is even trying to close the floodgates. Just like what happened on Israel's border with Egypt before the Israel–Egypt barrier's construction, illegal immigrants make their way from all over Latin America and freely cross over to the US, primarily from Mexico.
Illegal immigrants take jobs away from actual US citizens. No less important is the fact that they reside in the United States' main cities and, in many cases, live in tents in their most central locations. As a result, there is a widespread feeling that the government is helpless. This connects to the third issue argued by the Republicans: rampant crime and no sense of security.
After the killing of George Floyd by white police officers in Minneapolis in 2020 and the subsequent outbreak of massive riots all over the United States, one of the outcomes was efforts to defund police departments in cities governed by Democrats. The weakening of the police allowed crime to rise – the data on this matter is undisputed. The Republicans, who have always supported law and order, are using fear to win over most American voters.
It is common knowledge that in American politics, the party that wins the presidential elections loses the midterms two years later. Nevertheless, the Republicans have not always had the upper hand during the election campaign. The Democrats had and still have quite a few cards up their sleeve.
The first one is the restrictions placed on abortions, implemented by many states in the US following the Supreme Court's ruling in the summer. An improvement in economic statistics and another economic aid package that Biden authorized have helped the color blue return to the poll graphs for a short while.
The candidates endorsed by Trump are also weighing the Republicans down. Some are so extreme or unpopular that even poor Democratic candidates had no trouble beating them in the polls. If this was still not the case in several states, the Republicans' expected victory could have been even bigger.
Admittedly, all these forecasts are based on polls, and we have already learned that they can be mistaken. Despite this, the surge in voters switching sides is so great, even traditional Democratic strongholds are in peril. In any case, we need to wait for the actual results that will start coming in on Wednesday morning (Israel time).
Here are the main battles in progress that show where the US is headed:
- Washington – In a country located on the edge of the United States, both geographically and politically speaking, the war its senator, Patty Murray, is fighting to stay in power, is no picnic. Although Washington is a highly Democratic state, Murray's Republican opponent, Tiffany Smiley, has seriously gained on her.
- New York – Lee Zeldin, a former Republican member of Congress, has given the state's governor, Kathy Hochul, a run for her money. Zeldin, a Jew and sworn supporter of Israel, emphasizes the widespread feeling of insecurity in the Democratic state. Among other things, his campaign highlights eight horrifying cases of murder that occurred this year in New York's subway stations.
- Nevada – although known as a Democratic state, Nevada's former attorney general, Republican Adam Laxalt, is rattling Senator Katherine Cortez Masto's political seat. Many perceive Nevada as a microcosm of what is happening in the United States.
- Arizona – Republican Senate Candidate Blake Masters is gaining on Democrat Senator Mark Kelly. Masters is endorsed by Trump and is haunted by past comments he made. Still, everyone agrees that it is a close fight between the two. Its outcome, like those of all the others for the position of Senator, will affect the balance of power between the two parties in the upper house.
- Pennsylvania (1) – A battle of the titans is being waged for a seat at the Senate between John Fetterman, an extreme Democrat candidate – who has not recovered from a severe stroke he suffered and consequently suffered a disastrous loss in a televised debate – and his Republican opponent, Dr. Mehmet Oz. Even though Oz had a significant lead on Fetterman at the beginning of the campaign, the latter's campaign is nonetheless outstanding, and he is still likely to win.
- Pennsylvania (2) – Democrat Josh Shapiro, according to all the polls, is expected to defeat Republican candidate Doug Mastriano and become governor. The battle between the two turned ugly over the past few days when Mastriano made subtle antisemitic remarks, apparently to halt his campaign's decline. However, they had the exact opposite effect.
- Georgia – Former football running back Herschel Walker challenges Senator Raphael Warnock. They are closely tied, and the polls contradict one another. Due to Georga's unique election laws, there may be run–off elections in a few weeks.
- New Hampshire – The polls over the past few weeks have unexpectedly turned in favor of the Republican Candidate for Senator Don Bolduc in his clash against Senator Maggie Hassan. It is still too early to determine who will be victorious, but the polls show support for the former army general with ultra–conservative view.
- Wisconsin – after long months of being behind in the polls, Republican Senator Ron Johnson has recently retaken the lead against the popular Mandela Barnes. Here too, it is too early to determine who will win, due to, among other reasons, Wisconsin being a swing state with a Democratic tendency.
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