The attack in Jerusalem on Friday night is one of those potentially game-changing events, not just because of the rather high number of casualties and the fact that it was carried out at a synagogue in Jerusalem on Shabbat. Its significance is in the fact that it could set the narrative that escalation vis-a-vis the Palestinians is now a very real scenario and carries with it particular volatility.
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Palestinian media reported that the attack was retribution for the Israeli counterterrorism operation in Jenin on Thursday, during which several terrorists were eliminated. While it is too early to tie those two events together, investigators will now have to see whether the attacker was affiliated in any way with the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which was the target of Thursday's operation. If that turns out to be the case, Israel will face a very real dilemma in how it could react. The PIJ headquarters are in Gaza and Damascus, where any Israeli operation would have far-reaching repercussions.
Security officials had no actionable intelligence on the Friday night perpetrator, who was a resident of Jerusalem and therefore had an Israeli identification card that let him move freely within Israel-proper. This is a critical point to keep in mind because it underscores the complex reality in the capital: Some 300,000 Palestinians live in the city, but Israel won't do anything to deal with their status because it wants to keep the city united, even though many of them are open supporters of terrorists.
This issue will most likely dominate the discussions among security officials in the coming days. Right-wing MKs are likely to demand tough action, although Israel would be hard-pressed to pursue this path unless it can prove that the attack was orchestrated and funded from the Gaza Strip or Syria, especially if it emerges that this was the work of a lone wolf who had not been coordinating his moves with various other entities.
But putting aside the issue of how to respond in the immediate aftermath, there is concern that this attack will lead toward a clear path of escalation with the Palestinians. The past year has been replete with terrorist attacks in Judea and Samaria, primarily in northern Samaria, and Israel has had to step up its counterterrorism operations. Some 150 Palestinians were killed in 2022 in those operations, as well as another 30 since the new year. This has led to discontent on the Palestinian street, with many demanding that the Palestinian Authority take action. One result of that is the PA statement that it was cutting off ties with Israeli security officials.
Security officials should operate under the premise that the Friday night massacre would lead to copycat attacks, which was already noticeable in the shooting on Saturday morning near the Western Wall. That's why there is likely going to be a major surge in troops and officers in the capital or perhaps even across Judea and Samaria (on top of the additional battalion that was recently sent there in the wake of the Jenin operation). As a consequence, we are likely heading toward more incidents and more casualties, which could lead to more violence and escalation.
As is usually the case, some on the international stage will work toward de-escalation, chiefly the US, alongside the EU, Jordan, and Egypt. But the degree to which they can achieve their goal is limited because of the Palestinian Authority's loosening grip on the situation, which is only going to get worse according to intelligence analysts.
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