The ceasefire, which went into effect last night, was in Israel's clear interest, and it brings a successful operation to an end – admittedly it achieved limited goals and targets, but Israel had the upper hand.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
The Israeli rationale for ending the operation right now is that the objectives of the operation have been fully achieved. The Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) suffered a severe blow during the first days of the attack. Its entire operational military elite has been eliminated, and their successors are young and inexperienced commanders who will need time to stabilize their positions. The PIJ launched more than 1,000 rockets toward Israel but did not cause much damage. On the other hand, it paid dearly by seeing major damage inflicted on its military facilities – mainly its buildup capacity, ammunition storages, and rocket launch pits. Israel responded without harming too many noncombatants while managing to leave Hamas and other members of the Iranian axis out of the operation.
Hamas also played a part
These gains could have been eroded if the operation had dragged on. The number of high-quality targets would have decreased, and the chance of making a mistake would have increased (as well as the operational success of the PIJ, by firing rockets or an antitank missile that pinpointed a fleeting target). As time passed Hamas would have been pushed into a corner; now it is benefiting from the fact that the status of the PIJ has been eroded – i.e., the internal military challenge it is facing has weakened – but, the continued closing of the border crossings, the prevention of passing fuel into the Gaza Strip and stopping workers coming into Israel, would have exerted pressure on the organization from the local population to find a solution to the closure.
To avoid this situation, Hamas also worked behind the scenes to finalize the ceasefire. The negotiations, conducted through Egyptian mediation from the moment the escalation started out with the elimination of the three senior members of the PIJ – were already close to an agreement several times in recent days, but got stuck again and again due to the parties insisting on certain wording.
A reasonable formula
The one who raised difficulties from the side of the PIJ was the organization's leader, Ziad al-Nakhalah. From his location in Beirut, and with his Iranian sponsor breathing down his neck, Nakhalah demanded that Israel agree to stop the assassinations. Israel refused to commit to this publicly and demanded that the organization commit to stop launching rockets. The Egyptians suggested that the parties commit to this mutual agreement: stop the killings by Israel and rocket fire from the PIJ, with Cairo guaranteeing that the agreement is upheld.
Israel's security establishment considered this a reasonable equation that would allow them to end hostilities. In any case, Israel eliminated those who it had targeted in this operation, and if the PIJ refrains from firing in the future, Israel will have no reason to kill its people.
On the other hand, if they take action again, Israel will be unbound to its part of the agreement. If the parties continued to insist on the wording, the shooting would have continued as well, resulting in additional casualties and even a major unintended event that would make it difficult to stop the fighting.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
The cessation of hostilities at this time will ensure, almost certainly, that Jerusalem Day will pass quietly this week. In recent years, Hamas managed to increase tensions around this day under the false pretense that the Al-Aqsa Mosque was in danger, and it is likely that it would have tried to do so this year as well. However, Operation Shield and Arrow proved once again that Hamas is not interested in fighting, and it is doubtful if it will drag Gaza into another military campaign – bloodier and even more violent – just after the current round had ended.
Therefore, from the moment the agreement was reached and the firing ceased, we will return to normal routine, and the residents of the Gaza area are guaranteed a period of quiet, subject to the length of time Israel will be able to maintain its deterrence against Gaza.
