The IDF completed its ground preparations for an operation in the Gaza Strip over the weekend. Israeli political and military leaders believe that this operation will last several months, with the initial phase dedicated to seizing control of the area and the subsequent phase focused on systematic strikes against the operational and political structure of Hamas.
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Senior IDF officials met with various units over the weekend that are expected to join the war effort and delivered a consistent message: This is expected to be a challenging operation, in a densely populated and complex area, with many surprises that Hamas is preparing – from explosive devices and antitank missiles to booby-trapped houses and a complex system of underground tunnels.
Video: 'It's a massacre' - Israeli kibbutz highlights destruction of Hamas attack / Credit: Reuters
On the other hand, the IDF comes to this operation with its full ground, aerial, and naval might, with its qualitative and numerical edge, and, most importantly – with a moral justification. While the IDF has not spoken in terms of anger and revenge, it has expressed determination. "Remember the images and the fallen from two weeks ago," Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said in a conversation with Golani Division commanders.
In addition to the stated goals of the operation, which include neutralizing Hamas's military wing and degrading its ability to control Gaza, Israel hopes to achieve two more objectives. The first is improving the operational conditions for the release of captives, or at least obtaining information about their whereabouts and condition.
The IDF spokesperson stated on several occasions in recent days that a favorable picture has emerged regarding the captives. However, it is still unclear whether some of the captives are alive or dead. This can also be learned from the data that is continually being updated (alongside the progress of identifying the bodies in Israel). Over the weekend it was announced that Hamas is holding 210 captives.
The second objective is the assassination of the military and political leadership of Hamas. While this was always a top priority in every operation in Gaza, this time it is a war of a different magnitude. So far, 4 out of 20 members of Hamas's Shura Council have been killed, as well as some mid-level commanders and one senior figure: Ayman Nofal, who was the head of Hamas' intelligence and was in charge of the organization's central Gaza disposition.
However, Israel is clear that the operation must primarily end with the assassination of the top three figures in the organization – Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Marwan Issa – as well as each of the top political and religious leadership in Gaza. The Shin Bet is also working on assassinating anyone involved in the October 7 attack, most of them being the active force of the organization, the Nukhba, who will now be targets for assassination.
Furthermore, Israel will need to decide whether it expands the operation against Hamas beyond the borders of the Gaza Strip. In the past year, Saleh al-Aruri has been marked as a significant concern, as he established a Hamas combat unit in Lebanon and used the country (as well as Turkey) to stage attacks in Judea and Samaria.
Hamas' top political leadership, headed by Ismail Haniyeh and Khaled Mashal enjoys immunity due to their presence in Qatar, and it is likely that Israel will cooperate with the United States and European countries to exert pressure that would lead to their removal from there.
As reported the other day in this paper, Israel believes that concurrently with the deepening of the Gaza operation, Hezbollah is expected to escalate its activities in the north. The assessment in Israel remains as it was: Hezbollah aims to contribute to the struggle in Gaza, but they will attempt to do so while avoiding an escalation into a full-blown war that could devastate Lebanon.
Nevertheless, it is evident that Hezbollah is making efforts to target soldiers and military objectives, in part to deter the IDF from the north and complicate the expected turmoil in Gaza.
Efforts to hinder Israeli operations are also visible in other areas influenced by clear Iranian inspiration. At the end of last week, it became clear that the Houthi rebels in Yemen launched four ballistic missiles and 15 armed drones towards Israel overnight.
The launch is carried out in two waves. All the armed drones are of Iranian origin and are provided to the Houthis as part of Iran's overt efforts to harm its regional adversary, originally targeting Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and now Israel.
The detection and interception capabilities provided to Israel by the US Navy significantly enhance the range of detection and interception possibilities. This was demonstrated on Thursday in the southern Red Sea, more than 1,000 kilometers from Israel's coast.
In Israel, it is believed that the Houthis may attempt to launch additional missiles and armed kamikaze drones towards Israel, and Shia militias in Iraq are also likely to join the conflict and launch missiles and armed drones from Iraqi territory.
For the missile threat, the Arrow system is expected to provide protection, while the challenge posed by armed drones, which fly at low altitudes and are slow, making detection more difficult, is primarily addressed by fighter jets and combat helicopters.
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