More than two weeks have passed since the Israeli War Cabinet announced the goal of the Gaza war, following the shocking massacre in the Gaza border communities. Their goal was to "destroy the military and political capabilities of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in a way that would suppress their ability and to threaten and harm Israel for many years." As the days go by and the airstrikes continue, it seems that new factors are shaping the strategy of the decision-makers in the international arena, with the United States chiefly among them. The questions of what happens next in Gaza, the fate of the captured soldiers held by Hamas, and the possibility of another front opening against Lebanon are all becoming increasingly significant.
Despite the fact that the IDF forces have not yet launched a ground offensive in Gaza, it is expected that this tactical decision will be made. Contrary to claims that Israel prefers to continue the conflict only from the air, and despite reports in foreign media suggesting that the US has been advising Israel not to enter Gaza for the time being, government sources indicate that this decision will be made by Israel's political and military leadership alone and not by any foreign entity. Although questions about the timing remain, the decision-makers naturally prefer to keep very little information available to the enemy. "The fog of war is important. The determination at the civilian and military levels to act on the ground has not changed and has even strengthened as time goes on," said a government source.
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The goal has been and remains a ground operation in which as many Hamas terrorists as possible are killed wherever they are hiding. However, until the signal is given, Israel will continue to target Hamas terrorists from the air. American advisors sent to Israel say in closed discussions that the decision-makers should learn from "the mistakes of previous US wars" and recommend acting under the most favorable conditions for IDF soldiers to ensure their success. All the leaders who have come to Israel, as conveyed by Netanyahu himself, are resigned to the notion that a ground entry into the Gaza Strip is a done deal.
The cabinet was expected to convene once again, and in the meantime, the prime minister, defense minister, and the IDF chief are coordinating their efforts, despite reports of tensions between them. According to Israel Hayom, since the outbreak of the conflict, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been meeting with former generals, including former chiefs of staff and National Security Council and Shin Bet heads. Officials involved in the work say that the decision to embark on a war of this magnitude against Hamas is a significant one and could have far-reaching implications for the lives of IDF soldiers, which is why the prime minister prefers to consult in the days leading up to a ground entry.
The aerial campaign that continues to bring important world leaders to Israel also leads to proposals from those leaders focusing on the protection of the Palestinian population in Gaza and humanitarian assistance, as well as the post-Hamas issue. Everyone who has arrived so far has understood that Israel's goal is not up for discussion; it is to eliminate the murderous terrorist organization. However, in exchange for the significant support received, Israel is also required to be flexible on humanitarian issues concerning the residents of Gaza.
This is why Netanyahu himself continues to call on residents to evacuate to southern Gaza, where assistance will be provided. In this way, it is also estimated that Israel's offensive actions will be confined to the northern side of the Gaza Strip. Energy Minister Israel Katz said in an interview with the German newspaper Bild yesterday, "We prefer that Egypt opens the Rafah border crossing and allows them to stay in the Sinai for as long as possible. He (the Egyptian president) disagrees. We have a peace agreement. Therefore, we accept his decision. In the south of the Gaza Strip, there is an area without bombings, so those who stay there will remain unharmed. This is where humanitarian aid will be delivered."
The captured soldiers
Hamas' policy of trickling hostages back to Israel is designed to delay Israel's actions in the Strip. However, Israel has made it clear that the return of the captives will not limit ground operations. Nevertheless, the assessment among decision-makers is that those who will oversee the continuation of the negotiations will be the Qataris, who have so far demonstrated their ability to deliver results in dealing with Hamas, despite Qatar itself being a well-known and established terrorist supporter.
In the cabinet meeting, it was decided not to support the policy of "trickling" but to push for substantial negotiations that would lead to the release of dozens of Israeli civilians held by the murderous terrorist organization. The decision is in the hands of Hamas, and the assessment is that the situation will be clarified soon. Katz also said in an interview with the German newspaper, "At the moment, we assume that Hamas wants to keep the captives for bargaining purposes. But Hamas cannot prevent the ground entry."
It has been 16 days since Israel has been pursuing a containment strategy in the northern border by responding to rocket fire from Lebanon. The prime minister and the military leaders continue to threaten that if Hezbollah joins the conflict, both its fate and Lebanon's will be bitter, as in the results of the Second Lebanon War. In practice, Israel cannot predict Hezbollah's steps, and the concern is a breakdown in intelligence similar to what opened the door to the events of the tragic Saturday two weeks ago. Therefore, most of the soldiers stationed on Israel's northern border are there to be ready for any scenario that may develop alongside the ground entry into Gaza.
Two approaches are being discussed in the cabinet: one that results from a ground entry and a humane blow to Hamas - Hezbollah will be deterred and will not join the conflict. The second is that if Hezbollah cannot stand by, it will take advantage of the opportunity and join attacks on Israel from the north. Israel has conveyed a clear message through the president of France, who visited Israel this week, for Lebanon to avoid an escalation at this time. Still, among the soldiers stationed on the northern border and residents in the area there is a lingering question: Can we afford to end the current war without removing and eliminating the looming threat from the north?"
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