Although Wednesday's barrage on northern Israel has not been considered a game-changer that could lead to a full-blown war with Hezbollah, an Israeli official has for the first time indicated that a ground operation in Lebanon was in the works.
The senior Israeli official told Israel Hayom that after the IDF completed its planned maneuver in Rafah it will turn to the north. "Achieving the strategic goal of the return of northern residents to their homes requires a ground war. We will do that after Rafah, not simultaneously," the official said.
Former officials in the security establishment claim that it will not be possible to carry out the Israeli plans. As the US withdraws its support for Israel on the international front, they argue, the chances for a significant operation in Rafah are gradually diminishing.
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However, this doom and gloom is not shared by the Israeli political leadership. There, both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as Minister Benny Gantz, continue to argue that there is no escaping an Israeli operation in Rafah and the elimination of the remaining Hamas battalions.
The planned action in Rafah was supposed to pressure Hamas into a prisoner exchange deal that would ease its situation, but this pressure has not borne fruit and the terror organization is entrenching itself in its positions. Israeli officials assess that this is directly linked to the decline in US support for Israel and Hamas' belief that soon international pressure will force Israel to back down before it manages to subdue the organization and its people.
At the political leadership level, there is concern about the loss of American support, but not at the cost of shelving the plans. Israel Hayom has learned that the White House is already making efforts to re-coordinate the arrival of National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi and Minister Ron Dermer, in order to present them with alternatives they have prepared for a broad operation in Rafah.
The White House understands they would not be able to avert an Israeli operation in Rafah unless they first try to present these alternatives to Netanyahu's people, they will not be able to prevent the Israeli plan from being carried out.
"The message to the US and the world is important to us – Stage 3 is not the end of the war, and Hamas cannot be subdued from the air. These are thoughts from 2006," says a senior Israeli official. "We are currently operating in Khan Younis, and the brigade that finishes in Khan Yunis will then go to Rafah."
According to the official, it will not be possible to evacuate people from Rafah and allow the military operation there before IDF forces complete their mission in Khan Younis. Despite international pressure, he added, "we are doing things without a stopwatch."
