Six months after the concept in the political system and security establishment shattered in the brutal onslaught by Hamas on Oct. 7, is Israel once again convincing itself that its deterrence is working? A disturbing report by the Middle East Media Research Institute might prove otherwise. The same institute that warned us in the summer of an impending war in September-October is now warning us that Iran is attempting to bring about the immediate overthrow of the regime in Jordan.
"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel's security apparatuses maintain that Israeli airstrikes in Syria and Lebanon will prevent Iran from consolidating its presence in Syria. But this concept is wrong, and this is because Iran's operations against Israel have two dimensions: The first is direct Iranian action against Israel, which Tehran is currently avoiding – not because it is deterred but because it is not deviating from its grand plan that prioritizes undermining pro-West Arab regimes. The second is its use of its proxies, i.e. the "popular resistance" organizations in the various Arab countries, which has been Iran's modus operandi since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and particularly in recent years," Ayelet Savyon, director of the MEMRI Iran Media Studies project, writes.
"The Israeli airstrikes are not deterring Iran from using its proxies, since this Iranian approach has been a cornerstone of its political-military and religious strategy since the Islamic Revolution. This strategy's two main aims are consolidating its presence in the region and eliminating Israel, without getting dragged into a regional war before its preparations to do so are completed," she says.
Indeed, a journalist with close ties to Hezbollah recently made it clear that Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has stated Iran will retaliate by "slapping Israel in the face," though he avoided using violent descriptors like "hit" or "punch." The essence of his message was that a response is inevitable, whether it happens tomorrow or in ten years. He noted the numerous challenges in executing such a response, pointing out the United States. "We need to be realistic," he said.
Additionally, Yahya Safavi, senior adviser to Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has threatened that Tehran has the right to target Israel's diplomatic representations worldwide.
In an interview with Israel Hayom, Savyon explains that "the Iranians are very cautious in their statements, especially regarding their ambition to overthrow a Sunni Arab regime. Usually, they hint at or indicate the outcome they desire. They always try to obscure their involvement, issuing general threats and declaring the goals they aim to achieve, yet they are involved in actions on the ground –like sending weapons to Gaza, Jordan, etc." Savyon also reminds us that there has been a direct order from Khamenei since 2014 to smuggle ammunition into the West Bank.
According to Savyon, from the Iranian perspective, "the payback" for the assassination could be entirely in a different form. "Pressuring the US to pull back Israel, painting Israel as a terror state and exacting a diplomatic price for it, activating a different front that is not active at all in the form of Jordan, working to overthrow King Abdullah's regime in Jordan – a move that would have a "domino effect" on the rest of the moderate Sunni Arab states, thwarting the Saudi-American-Israeli normalization project, and of course, attacking Israel from the West Bank."
According to Savyon, from Iran's viewpoint, the response to the assassination could manifest in various strategic dimensions: It could involve framing Israel as a state sponsor of terrorism to incur international diplomatic consequences, engaging in operations through previously inactive fronts such as Jordan, aiming to destabilize King Abdullah's regime which could potentially trigger wider repercussions among moderate Sunni Arab nations, undermining efforts towards the Saudi-American-Israeli normalization initiative, and executing military actions against Israel from the West Bank.
"The Iranians operate through networks they establish, for instance in Jordan, leveraging drug smuggling networks and subsequently using this infrastructure to smuggle weapons. They also engage in the establishment of religious frameworks to disseminate the Islamist message."
As for Jordan, public demonstrations have escalated significantly, with participants actively congregating for over two weeks, sharply amplifying their anti-Israel rhetoric. The protestors have called for attacks in areas such as Eilat and the Jordan Valley, explicitly stating their desire to breach the border with the intention of killing and abducting Israeli soldiers.
The report also said that Saudi writer Khaled Al-Ghanami wrote in a recent article, titled "Jordan Is A Red Line" that "the moderate axis that is represented by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE will not sit idly by if it sees any harm to Jordan such as a declaration of war..."
