In an unusual statement, the Turkish president boasted that he could invade Israel. At a party conference, Recep Tayyip Erdogan said: "We must be strong so that Israel cannot attack Palestine. Just as we entered Karabakh (in the Caucasus) and the way we entered Libya, maybe we will do the same. There is nothing we cannot do. We must be strong."
But what is Turkey's actual situation and how does it intervene in military conflicts around the world?
Erdogan commands one of the largest armies in the Middle East. About 425,000 soldiers and another 380,000 reservists serve in it. This modern military organization, enjoying a budget of $15.8 billion, has land, air, and sea branches, along with special commando units. However, the most prominent element today in the Turkish military is Erdogan's "drone army," which has become a game-changing weapon.
"The Turkish Occupation"
For instance, the Turkish army has used drones to fight in northern Syria to establish a "security belt" near the border. Erdogan is expected to meet with the Syrian dictator, Bashar Assad, next month to discuss normalizing relations between the countries, after years of tension, during which the "security belt" was dubbed "the Turkish occupation" in Assad's regime media outlets.
It appears the Kurds in northern Syria will pay the price for the diplomatic romance between Damascus and Ankara after they blocked the ISIS terrorist organization in the previous decade. Erdogan fears a scenario where the large Kurdish minority in eastern Turkey joins forces with Kurdish forces in Syria and Iraq. Therefore, in Iraqi Kurdistan, Turkish drones have attacked Kurdish targets.
In Libya, mentioned by Erdogan, the Turkish army helped Islamist forces in the west to block the offensive of General Khalifa Haftar from the east on the capital, Tripoli. In recent years, the Turks have assisted with advanced drone strikes on Haftar's forces, managing to push him eastward after he was close to taking over all of Libya.
The leading manufacturer of these drones is Baykar Technologies, a private company led by Erdogan's son-in-law, Selcuk Bayraktar. Its flagship product, the TB2 drone, has become Ankara's fingerprint in conflicts worldwide—from Ukraine to Ethiopia.
From Ukraine to Ethiopia
Erdogan does not rely only on drones to aid his allies. In Syria, Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh (where Turkey assisted Azerbaijan against Armenia), Ankara has remotely deployed tens of thousands of mercenaries to the battlefields. According to estimates, nearly 35,000 mercenaries operated at Ankara's behest, most of them Sunni Muslims. A few thousand of them, according to reports, fought in Libya.
Turkey also boasts a fleet of warships, submarines, landing craft, and aircraft. It is estimated that close to 50,000 people serve in the Turkish navy. Recently, it was reported that Turkey stationed five warships off the territorial waters of Greece, a continuation of Erdogan's provocations in the Aegean Sea in recent years, stemming partly from disputes over gas fields.
Aggressive Behavior in the Mediterranean Basin and the Arab World
Turkey's aggressive conduct in the Mediterranean basin and the Arab world evokes memories of the Ottoman Empire. Since the Justice and Development Party, whose ideology aligns with the Muslim Brotherhood, came to power in the early 2000s, it has promoted the Islamization process in the country. This is a reaction to the secularization policy led by Turkey's founder, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, in the last century.
While Erdogan directs attention outward, he faces a series of internal problems. More than a year ago, in February 2023, an earthquake in southern Turkey resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands of refugees. Many of them still live without shelter.
Erdogan's Growing Confidence
Additionally, since the outbreak of the civil war in Syria in 2011, Turkey has absorbed four million Syrian refugees. They receive racist treatment from many Turks, who see them as an economic burden and a source of crime.
Despite this, according to a Reuters survey, the Turkish economy is expected to grow by 3.15% in 2024. This contrasts with the government's forecast of 4% growth. Regardless, these are relatively good figures, especially amid the crises the country suffers from.
Recently, this allowed Turkey's central bank to return a $5 billion deposit received from Saudi Arabia last year, ahead of election rounds. The unemployment rate also dropped from around 10% to 8.4% last May, at least according to the Turkish Statistical Institute.
This economic situation may further explain Erdogan's growing confidence, as he secured another presidential term last year. However, in the internal elections at the end of March, his party suffered a resounding defeat. In the capital, Ankara, Istanbul, and other cities, his opponents from the Republican Party maintained control. This indicates that power is not eternal.
