In a brief and terse announcement, Hamas declared that Yahya Sinwar, its leader in Gaza, has been elected as the political leader of the terrorist organization, replacing Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran last week.
The announcement follows recent Arab reports about entirely different candidates, with the primary ones being Khaled Mashal, the former head of the political bureau, and Abu Omar Hassan, head of the Shura Council. Both are senior officials based in Qatar.
According to Arab reports, Sinwar acted against Khaled Mashal's candidacy due to his strained relations with Iran and Syria. As head of the bureau in 2011, Mashal supported Islamist rebels in the Syrian civil war against Iran's ally, Bashar al-Assad. Consequently, Tehran resented him and opposed his candidacy to the extent that he was not invited for visits to Tehran.
It appears that Abu Omar Hassan, also known as Mohammed Ismail Darwish, was supposed to be a compromise candidate between Mashal's faction, which is closer to Sunni countries, and Sinwar's faction, which is closer to the pro-Iranian axis. Ultimately, the internal struggle was resolved in favor of the latter.
Moreover, it is possible that Sinwar used the hostage card to coerce other senior Hamas officials into supporting his candidacy. This is the only significant achievement the terrorist organization has maintained since the outbreak of the war. Without them, Hamas would not be able to secure the release of security prisoners through indirect agreements with Israel and gain legitimacy among Palestinians. It is difficult to determine the impact of this choice on negotiations and the continuation of the war. On one hand, Sinwar is described as a more problematic figure in mediation talks, while on the other hand, the risks he faces, unlike senior bureau officials in Qatar, could influence his considerations.
There may be some logic in this, as Sinwar had already made crucial decisions for Hamas even when he was ostensibly subordinate to Haniyeh.
Meanwhile, pressure from mediators is being directed towards Israel. New Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel-Atti this week asked US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to press Israel to "seriously engage in negotiations to calm the war in Gaza."
The center of gravity returns to Gaza
This marks the return of the center of gravity to Gaza after many years during which the leader of the terrorist organization resided abroad. In fact, since Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, the overseas political leadership has held the position. More than anything, it seems that the overseas Hamas bureau has acknowledged Sinwar's senior status and is now boasting about the massacre of the October 7 attack. On the ground, Sinwar's appointment is supposed to enable him to impose his decisions on some of the military wing commanders who supported a temporary ceasefire.
Hamas senior official in Lebanon, Osama Hamdan, stated that "Sinwar was unanimously chosen, which indicates that the organization understands the current phase well. The negotiations were led by the leadership and Sinwar was always present."
Hamas-affiliated commentator Ibrahim Al-Madhoun claimed that Sinwar's election is a "challenging message to Israel." He stated, "The internal election of Sinwar comes naturally because he is Haniyeh's deputy as head of Hamas in Gaza. A powerful man capable of managing affairs, it is natural for him to be elected. He and Mashal, head of Hamas abroad, were candidates."
According to Al-Madhoun, Sinwar is expected to deliver a speech or even publish a written message. He asserted that "Sinwar's election confirms that Hamas is ready to complete the confrontation to the end."
