Up until 24 hours ago, I was hesitant to support a full-scale Israeli campaign in the north.
From the outset, it was clear to me that in order to restore a sense of security to northern residents, the IDF must initiate an aggressive blitzkrieg against Hezbollah. However, after 11 months of fighting, with forces worn down, munitions depleting, many Israelis nearing economic collapse, and more – ideally, the political and military leadership would set a timeline for a rebuilding phase, after which we would launch the necessary offensive.
During this rebuilding period, the soldiers and their families could recover, while regular forces and reservists who hadn't served in the war would handle routine security. Additionally, the IDF's personnel numbers could be increased by canceling exemptions for released reservists and drafting the ultra-Orthodox (or at least redirecting funds from yeshivas to the IDF if they refuse to serve). At that point, we would face a political question: Can we trust the government to actually launch such an attack in the north after the much-desired calm finally sets in? After nearly a year of fighting, when we finally begin to lick our wounds?
But much has happened in the last 24 hours. The pager operation is likely one of the most successful and impressive intelligence operations ever (and no, this is not an exaggeration), with thousands of terrorists hurt. How significant is this blow, and why did it cause me to change my opinion regarding a northern campaign?
As of this writing, Lebanese media reported that the number of casualties from the attack is close to 3,000. Inflicting thousands of injuries at once is a very complex task, especially when the attack did not take place in one location, but across several remote sites within Lebanon and even in Syria. Moreover, hospitals in the country are overflowing with wounded, with footage from inside showing complete chaos. It's highly unlikely they managed to record everything in such a short time, so the number of casualties could significantly rise.
Nasrallah claimed in 2021 that Hezbollah has around 100,000 fighters, but all estimates suggest the numbers are much lower. For example, a CNN report published at the end of last month estimated Hezbollah's strength at 50,000 troops, with 30,000 regular forces and an additional 20,000 reservists. In 2022, the CIA estimated Hezbollah's numbers at up to 45,000 fighters, with no more than 20,000 being regulars.
According to reports, almost all casualties are Hezbollah operatives, the vast majority of them fighters, with many being senior members. Even if it turns out that Hezbollah "only" lost 4,000 fighters out of its 50,000 total – that's 8%, an enormous figure and a starting point we could never have dreamed of. If we approach 6,000 casualties, which I consider a very plausible scenario, that would mean 12% of their forces.
So, don't our brave soldiers deserve some recovery time? Many of them, and their families, surely long for it. But when it's clear that eradicating the threat posed by Hezbollah to the State of Israel is a necessity – we don't have the luxury of giving up such momentum or such an opportunity, which likely won't come again. Most of all, we don't have the privilege of abandoning the north.
Momentum has an expiration date, especially when facing the world's most powerful and wealthy terrorist organization. The Prime Minister, the Cabinet, and the military leadership must make the necessary decision, seize this momentum, and strike in Lebanon – not in a month, not even in a week, but today.
