A new study by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs reveals that Hamas began implementing its plan for the October 7 attack on Israel as early as 2021. The report suggests that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar aimed to claim the mantle of "liberator of Palestine" for Sunni Islam, opting to act independently despite alliances with Iran and Hezbollah.
Lt Col (Res) Jonathan Dahoah Halevi's study analyzes primary sources from Hamas archives. A key finding reveals that Hamas planned a multi-pronged attack involving territorial seizure, rocket launches, and an uprising in the West Bank.
The research also shows that Hamas exploited Israel's political crisis and its impact on IDF preparedness. The group executed a deception plan, misleading Israel about its true intentions and projecting an image of a deterred organization. Hamas also created a false impression that Israel would primarily face tunnel-based attacks, while the actual assault involved a ground invasion, air and sea infiltrations, and the use of drones.
Interestingly, the study notes that Hamas began hinting at the impending attack as early as December 2022, when Sinwar announced a "roaring flood" (Tufan Hader in Arabic). In preparation, Hamas conducted annual military drills focusing on invading Israel. The final exercise, unusually advanced, took place less than a month before the October 7 attack. These drills incorporated advanced technologies like drones and special forces deployments from the sea, simulating the capture of IDF positions, settlement takeovers, and the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers.
The Jerusalem Center points out that while Hamas forged alliances with Iran and Hezbollah, it ultimately decided to act independently. The study suggests that Sinwar viewed the attack as part of an "end of days" scenario – the Islamic prophecy of Muslim victory over non-believers.
The IDF have had chances to kill arch-terrorist leader Sinwar. But he is surrounded by hostages. The bag he's holding in this video is filled with dynamite. "A few times we have had the chance to kill him, but if we do, he will kill all the hostages around him." pic.twitter.com/jZEOY4Wl9V
— Adam Ma'anit (@adammaanit) October 5, 2024
Halevi states, "Sinwar needed the alliance with Iran and Hezbollah to build Hamas's military capabilities in Gaza. However, when the moment arrived, it appears he chose to reserve the title of Palestine's liberator for Sunni Islam, rather than ceding it to the Shiite forces of the resistance axis. He likely assumed they would join his campaign against Israel under his leadership."
The report also highlights lessons from Operation Guardian of the Walls, which prompted Hamas to revise its strategy against Israel. The group prioritized military enhancement, force training, and professional preparation to unify all confrontation arenas into a single front. The planned surprise attack was meant to include "seizing the Galilee and Negev regions, inciting an armed uprising among Palestinians in the West Bank and Arab Israelis, and launching massive rocket and missile barrages to cripple air and sea ports and strike strategic targets."
The study concludes that Sinwar's decision to launch the campaign without prior coordination with Hezbollah disrupted the execution of the original plan.
