A day after the body of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was identified (Thursday), the prevailing assessment with Israeli leadership is that his brother, Muhammad Sinwar, will assume control of the terrorist organization in Gaza, including managing the Israeli hostage situation. This is according to a senior Israeli source speaking to Israel Hayom.
The source noted that Sinwar's elimination opens up new possibilities for rescuing the hostages, stating that "efforts are ongoing to bring them home by any means possible." However, they expressed pessimism regarding the chances of reaching a deal with Muhammad Sinwar, saying, "He is no less a redical than his brother and is an arch-terrorist like him."
In light of Sinwar's elimination, White House spokesperson John Kirby stated today that there are currently no negotiations for a hostage deal or a ceasefire in the Strip.
The senior official revealed that in the two weeks leading up to Sinwar's elimination, signs had emerged suggesting a certain willingness within Hamas to compromise on the terms of a potential hostage deal, including backing out of their demand for Israel to withdraw from the Philadelphi Route. The official assessed that this flexibility was driven by the reduction in supplies entering northern Gaza, which made it difficult for Hamas to maintain its civilian control in the area.
According to the official, Israel understands that dismantling Hamas's civilian control over Gaza, and its control of incoming supplies from the world in particular, is key to achieving its war objectives. Against this backdrop, a new idea has emerged in the Prime Minister's Office.
After previous attempts to distribute supplies through local hamulas (clans) and international aid organizations faced difficulties, the new proposal being considered involves private American companies being responsible for bringing aid through Israeli border crossings and distributing it to civilian centers in Gaza.
According to this model, the IDF would be responsible for security issues, ensuring that Hamas terrorists do not harm the employees of these private companies. However, soldiers themselves would not be involved in the actual food distribution.
On the broader issue, the senior official stated that Sinwar's elimination would not bring an end to the war. "The objectives have not yet been achieved. Hamas still has military strength in the Strip, civilian control, and there are 101 hostages that need to be brought home."
Meanwhile, a senior Hamas official abroad, Mahmoud Mardawi, told Qatar's Al-Araby channel, "Our conditions for negotiating a hudna (ceasefire) will not change after Sinwar's death. We will elect a new leader, and after that, we will consider all the ceasefire proposals. Our procedures will govern the selection of Yahya Sinwar's successor at the head of the movement. The current situation is pushing to shorten the leadership election process. The election is a natural process and will not take long."
