A recent poll conducted by the Manhattan Institute reveals a potential shift in Jewish voter allegiance away from the Democratic Party, with Vice President Kamala Harris projected to perform worse among this demographic than any Democratic presidential candidate since the 1980s.
The survey, conducted between October 5 and 9, 2024, polled 658 Jewish registered voters across the United States on their views regarding the 2024 presidential election, issues affecting American Jewry, and other public policy matters. The poll, which has a margin of error of +/– 3.8%, indicates that while Jewish voters remain largely aligned with the Democratic Party, there are growing cracks in that support.
According to the Manhattan Institute's findings, Harris is on track for the narrowest margin of victory with Jewish voters (+36%) of any candidate since Michael Dukakis in 1988 (+29%). This represents a significant decline from previous Democratic nominees, such as Bill Clinton's +69% margin in 1992, Barack Obama's +56% in 2008, and Hillary Clinton's +47% in 2016.
The poll reveals that Jewish voters are more concerned about rising antisemitism within the Democratic Party than in the Republican Party. "Security, Israel, and antisemitism" are identified as Harris's weakest issues relative to former President Donald Trump among Jewish voters. The survey suggests that many Jewish voters may be uncomfortable with the Democratic Party's tolerance of voices that criticize Israel in extreme terms.
Despite their overall Democratic lean, Jewish voters show diverse opinions on various issues. While strongly aligned with Democrats on abortion rights, their views on immigration and fiscal issues don't fully match either party's platform. The poll indicates that Jewish voters are fiscal moderates, concerned about government spending but supportive of higher taxes on middle- to upper-income brackets.
On the topic of Israel, support remains strong and consistent across party lines, with 83% of Democratic Jews, 86% of Independents, and 94% of Republicans identifying as supporters of the Jewish state. Only 5% of Jewish voters overall do not consider themselves supporters of Israel.
The survey also reveals that Jewish voters support laws banning people from wearing masks or otherwise covering their face with the intent to conceal their identity while congregating in public places. This issue has become increasingly salient following incidents of anti-Israel activists seeking to intimidate Jewish students on college campuses, members of Congress, and city dwellers across America after October 7th, 2023.
On education-related issues, Jewish voters support taxing university endowments and prefer a color-blind society over a race-conscious one. They are closely divided on affirmative action and Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives, as well as on whether these programs do more harm than good when addressing antisemitism.
The poll finds that a majority of Jewish voters think the media does a poor job of portraying Israel, and a plurality say mainstream Jewish community interest groups in the US, like the Anti-Defamation League or the American Jewish Committee, combat antisemitism in a way that is too weak.
