A new Washington Post-Schar School poll reveals Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a virtual tie across seven key battleground states, with just two weeks remaining before the 2024 election. The survey of over 5,000 registered voters, conducted in early October, shows both candidates garnering 47% support among a critical portion of the electorate likely to determine the next president.
The poll, which focused on Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, found Harris' standing has improved significantly compared to President Joe Biden's position in a similar survey conducted in the spring. While Trump's support remains relatively unchanged at 48%, Harris now enjoys 47% support among registered voters, up from 41% for Biden in the previous poll.
Among likely voters, the race is even tighter, with Harris holding a slim 49% to 48% lead over Trump. The survey also identified a sizable group of "Deciders" – voters who have not firmly committed to either candidate and whose voting history suggests they may be swing voters in November.
"These battleground states could be won or lost by the narrowest of margins," a spokesperson for The Washington Post said, highlighting the importance of these undecided voters. "The choices made by this group of 'Deciders' could ultimately determine the outcome of the election."
The poll reveals some notable demographic trends among uncommitted voters. Younger voters aged 18-25 are the most likely to be undecided, with 43% still weighing their options. Additionally, non-White voters are more likely to be uncommitted than White voters, at 34% and 23% respectively.
State-by-state analysis shows varying levels of support for each candidate. Trump holds a slight edge in Arizona and North Carolina, while Harris leads in Georgia and maintains a slim advantage in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In Nevada, the candidates tied among likely voters.
The survey also delved into voter enthusiasm and key issues driving electoral decisions. Only a small percentage of "probable" voters for either candidate express enthusiasm about their choice, underscoring the importance of turnout efforts in the final weeks of the campaign.
Economic concerns remain paramount for many voters, particularly among those still undecided. A majority of potential Harris voters perceive the economy and inflation as worsening, despite recent improvements in the annual inflation rate. This perception could pose a challenge for the Harris campaign in the homestretch.
Climate change and abortion rights emerge as potential wedge issues for Trump, with probable Trump voters expressing more moderate views on these topics compared to his committed supporters.
Both candidates face challenges in solidifying their support among key demographic groups. Harris leads Trump by 22 points among Hispanic voters across all seven states, which is slightly lower than Biden's performance in 2020. Among Black voters, Harris holds a substantial 82% to 12% lead, though this 70-point margin is somewhat smaller than Biden's advantage four years ago.
The gender gap between the candidates is significant, with Harris leading among women by seven points and Trump holding an identical lead among men. This divide is most pronounced among voters under 30.
As the campaign enters its final phase, voters in these battleground states are acutely aware of their outsized role in determining the outcome. Three-quarters of respondents say they feel empowered by the knowledge that their vote could make a difference.
With the race so close and the stakes so high, both campaigns are likely to intensify their efforts to win over undecided voters and ensure high turnout among their supporters in these critical swing states.
The Washington Post-Schar School poll was conducted October 1-15, 2024, among 5,012 registered voters in seven battleground states, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points overall and 2 to 4.5 points for results in individual states.
