Could France under the Macron government be on a head-on collision course with the newly elected Trump administration following his sweeping victory earlier this month? There is good reason for making the case that this might well be so.
Ominous Indications
Indeed, an ominous indication of the deterioration of French policy and its divergence from US-led Western consensus could, arguably, have been evident in a recent decision to release the long-imprisoned Lebanese terrorist, Georges Ibrahim Abdallah.
Abdallah was sentenced to life in prison in 1987 for his involvement in the 1982 murders of US military attaché, Charles Ray and Israeli diplomat ,Yakov Bar Simantov in Paris, as well as in an assassination attempt on Robert O. Homme, an American consul in Strasbourg.
He has been eligible to apply for parole since 1999, but all his previous applications had been turned down except in one case over a decade ago – which was blocked by the then-incumbent Jacques Chirac government. Significantly, the then US ambassador to France, Charles Rivkin, criticized the decision to grant him parole, noting that Abdallah had never expressed remorse and, if released, could still pose a threat.
Indeed, the US has consistently opposed Abdallah's release and to date, there has been no change in Washington's position on the matter. True, French anti-terror prosecutors declared they would appeal the release order, but it is difficult to shake the feeling that the judicial decision could be a reflection of the new winds that have begun blowing from the Elysee Palace.
Animus abrew
Regrettably, this adversarial attitude from Paris towards both Israel and the US has been long abrew.
Thus, last June, France's Defense Ministry issued a decree banning Israeli participation in a premier weapons exhibition, Eurosatory. The fact the ban was struck down by the French judiciary did little to deter the Macron government from imposing an additional ban on Israeli companies from taking part in another event, Euronaval, that took place earlier this month, which was also annulled by the courts
Perversely, while France barred Israeli security companies from participating in prestigious arms exhibitions on its soil, some of the over 200 French companies taking part in the event are known to be licensed suppliers of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Iranian coast guard. Moreover, nine companies are reportedly listed by Iran as authorized suppliers of its oil and energy industries. Even more infuriatingly, some of the Iranian companies, with which the French firms were doing business, were under US-imposed sanctions!
Macron has also been a leading figure in promoting an arms embargo against an embattled Israel, locked in a mortal, multi-front battle imposed on it by the vicious forces of Islamic terror. In an uncalled-for admonition, the French president had the gall to accuse Israel of "sowing barbarism" in its epic struggle to repel the naked barbarism of its enemies.
Lending leniency for "lolly"?
At the end of last month, a leading Israeli site carried an accusation that "France's recent hostility towards the Jewish state may be motivated by an additional layer of corruption," This harsh charge was based on revelations by a renowned French journalist and Middle East expert Georges Malbrunot – both in his book and in Le Figaro.
Malbrunot prompted a furor following his exposure of a secret deal made in 2020 between Macron and Hezbollah in Lebanon. According to Malbrunot, Macron met with a US-sanctioned Hezbollah operative in an unprecedented meeting between a leader of a Western democracy and a senior representative of a major terrorist organization, among other things to broker a multi-billion dollar deal for the reconstruction of the Beirut port that was largely demolished by as yet-unattributed explosions in 2020 – although understandably suspicions of Hezbollah involvement abound.
By Malbrunot's account, Macron agreed to overlook any Hezbollah activity in the region as a condition for a contract being awarded to a French consortium, headed by a Franco-Lebanese billionaire Rodolphe Saadé, owner of BFM TV and the French maritime transport company CMA-CGM.
These shenanigans portray the French president in a somewhat unflattering light – as someone prioritizing corporate profits over the security of Lebanon and Israel alike – and lending leniency, if not legitimacy, to the Iranian-backed terror group, notwithstanding its pernicious nature and commandeering of the Lebanese government.
Puerile and petulant pique?
This malign sentiment towards Israel and benign affinity for its foes seem to have spilled over to France's attitude toward Israel's allies as well. This is clearly the case regarding Azerbaijan and symbolized by France's (and Iran's) absence from the UN Climate Change Conference (COP29).
This seems a somewhat petulant and puerile display of pique, especially given the importance of the climate issue for French diplomacy and Macron's personal agenda. According to a Le Monde analysis, this represents "An unprecedented crisis between France and Azerbaijan". According to the paper, this is "the consequence of a steady deterioration in relations between Paris and Baku, which has its origins in France's strong support for Armenia in its territorial dispute with Azerbaijan", and the supply of French military equipment to Yerevan.
In this regard, one would do well to recall some "questionable" conduct by Armenia in recent years – among other matters acting as a conduit for merchandise to Iran and Russia in violation of Western sanctions. Indeed, in light of recently reported large-scale deals with Tehran, there is concern that Armenia may become an Iranian proxy in the Caucasus (see also here.)
According to some sources, Baku has despaired of any improvement in bilateral relations under Macron, whom they see as under undue influence from the powerful Armenian diaspora in France. Thus, any progress towards enhancement of Franco-Azeri ties may have to be delayed for a post-Macron era.
Sadly, the same might be true for Israel as well.
