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Home Commentary

Assad regime's potential collapse raises new security concerns for Israel

Israel closely monitoring developments amid assessment that Assad is permitting entry of Iran forces, as Arab sources confirm arrival of pro-Iranian militia reinforcements in eastern Syria.

by  Shirit Avitan Cohen and Shachar Kleiman
Published on  12-02-2024 04:29
Last modified: 12-02-2024 19:39
Assad regime's potential collapse raises new security concerns for IsraelAFP

Rebel forces at the Aleppo military airfield | Photo: AFP

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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a security meeting Sunday evening to discuss developments in Syria, as Israeli officials assess that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is allowing Iranian forces to enter the country to protect his regime – a move that could directly impact the northern front.

Arab sources reported Sunday that pro-Iranian militia reinforcements arrived in eastern Syria, where they met with advisers from Iran's Revolutionary Guards. Later, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi landed in Damascus for meetings with Assad.

Before the meeting, diplomatic sources said Israel is closely monitoring developments, particularly their potential impact on the Lebanon ceasefire agreement. Additionally, officials are examining implications for Russia's role, given its previous efforts in preventing weapons transfers from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The rebels' capture of northern Syria has damaged Iranian and Hezbollah infrastructure, potentially hampering the terrorist organization's rehabilitation efforts – a development seen as positive for Israel. Assessments suggest that under attack, Assad might become more vulnerable and less focused on Iranian regional interests.

Syrian President Bashar
Assad (AFP via SANA)

However, concerns exist that Assad's regime collapse could create space for new military threats against Israel. Israeli officials consistently emphasize that the IDF will maintain operational freedom in Lebanon and Syria to prevent Hezbollah's renewed strengthening. While the weakening of Iran's influence in Syria is seen as positive in the short term, long-term implications remain uncertain.

Security officials assess that the fall of Aleppo, Syria's largest city, to HTS militia forces embarrasses Moscow and could affect its relevance to Lebanon's stabilization – particularly regarding Russian military resources that won't now be invested in constraining Iran's efforts to arm Hezbollah.

Before his Damascus visit, amid rebels' capture of Aleppo, Araghchi accused the US and Israel of enabling "the reemergence of terrorist elements in the region." Speaking at an Iranian Navy forum, Araghchi claimed, "Each day brings a new conspiracy. Terrorist presence in the region is growing. These infidel forces march shoulder to shoulder with the US and Israel. Their protectors should know all their attempts will fail."

Simultaneously, Assad's forces announced reinforcements arriving in northern Hama to support troops' advancement in the sector, claiming that Syrian rebel forces retreated after their advance was halted by Russian and Syrian air force strikes targeting rebel forces, headquarters, and weapons depots. An Assad military unit also reported that its soldiers blocked rebel forces in the Khatab village area northwest of Hama.

In northern Syria, rebels gained complete control of Aleppo. HTS jihadist operatives seized the Assad family's guest palace in the city, along with prisons and entire neighborhoods. City residents expressed concern about the organization, which is affiliated with Al Qaeda.

According to Arab reports, rebels in the Aleppo area also captured an Assad army general, identified as Malek Hassan Mikhber. Numerous recordings from the northern province showed dozens of captured Assad army soldiers and Shiite militia operatives. In one recording, rebels presented "between 45 and 60 soldiers" from Assad's army captured in the desert area of Khanasir city in southeastern Aleppo province. "We're sending a message to Assad's gangs," the rebel spokesperson said. "Surrender will be welcomed. Today in Khanasir, tomorrow in Homs, God willing."

Between Turks and Kurds

Other footage showed detained members of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which cooperates with Assad's army and fights rebels, some of whom are funded by Turkey. Kurdish female fighters were also among those captured by Syrian rebels.

Against this backdrop, the Syrian Democratic Forces accused that the offensive is "orchestrated by the Turkish occupation state, with the ultimate goal of conquering all Syrian territory." The Kurds, for their part, complained that their autonomous regions are "under extensive attack." The Kurdish-controlled organization declared general mobilization.

Additionally, rebel forces took control of a military airport east of Aleppo. Among other findings, they discovered what is suspected to be an Iranian drone. North of there, in the Kurdish-controlled city of Tel Rifaat, exchanges of fire were reported, and sources affiliated with the rebels reported its capture.

Tags: AssadSyria

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