Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's drive to modernize Saudi Arabia is gaining momentum as regional developments, including the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, create new opportunities for Middle Eastern stability, POLITICO reports.
The kingdom's transformation is evident in recent developments that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. Last week, Riyadh launched the world's longest driverless metro system, while international pop star Jennifer Lopez performed at a fashion show celebrating women, organized by Lebanese designer Elie Saab. The country also secured rights to host the 2034 World Cup.
"What has changed in this country? Everything," Mohammed Alyahya, senior advisor to the Saudi foreign minister, told POLITICO. "We all thought it might take two to three generations. It was sudden, and it worked. We have a leader in this country who is drawing on the energy of the 'youth bulge' to remake it."
This transformation reflects a significant shift from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's earlier approach to regional politics. After becoming heir apparent in 2017, he initially pursued an aggressive foreign policy, including Saudi involvement in Yemen's civil war and confrontation with Iran. However, he has since pivoted to focus on domestic modernization through his Vision 2030 plan.
The kingdom's reform agenda comes as the Middle East faces new strategic realignments. Prior to the Hamas attack last year, Saudi Arabia had been moving toward normalizing relations with Israel. While these talks are currently paused, recent regional developments, particularly Iran's weakened position following Assad's fall, could revive the normalization process.
"Why aren't we getting enough foreign direct investment? The geopolitical perception of the region is not good," Abdulaziz Al-Sager, head of the Gulf Research Center, told POLITICO.
Saudi Arabia's stability hinges partly on its ability to provide opportunities for its young population, with 70% of Saudis under 35. The kingdom is following the United Arab Emirates' model, emphasizing technology, artificial intelligence, and increased female workforce participation while seeking to diversify beyond oil dependence.
The upcoming Trump administration elicits mixed reactions in the region. While President-elect Donald Trump's strong support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu raises concerns about progress on Palestinian issues, his previous success in facilitating normalization agreements with Israel and tough stance on Iran is viewed positively.
"We've moved from geopolitics to geoeconomics," UAE diplomatic advisor Anwar Gargash, who helped negotiate the 2020 Abraham Accords, told POLITICO.
Despite China's growing influence, including its role in brokering Saudi-Iranian normalization, the United States remains the dominant external power in the Middle East. Saudi officials emphasize their desire for a US security guarantee, preferably through a Senate-ratified treaty similar to NATO arrangements.
The focus on economic development and societal modernization has shifted Saudi priorities regarding regional conflicts. While Saudi media covers the Gaza crisis extensively, government directives to religious leaders emphasize prayers for Gaza while moderating criticism of Israel.
This balancing act reflects broader changes in regional dynamics. Diplomats describe the pace of Saudi transformation as "China on steroids," with one noting that "there is this sense that they don't want anything to screw up the good things that are happening in their own country."
The stability of these reforms appears to be holding, with no significant backlash from political Islamists or the emergence of new extremist movements. Government officials report reduced corruption levels under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's leadership, though the country maintains strict controls on political dissent.
Saudi officials dismiss comparisons to smaller Gulf states regarding potential normalization with Israel. "We're not UAE, we're not Morocco, we're not Bahrain," a government source said. "We won't just cut a deal." Some analysts suggest King Salman, while largely deferring to the crown prince on most matters, has insisted on addressing Palestinian concerns in any normalization process.
The kingdom faces several long-term challenges despite its current trajectory. These include managing oil price volatility, which is currently trending downward, and ensuring economic opportunities for its young population. Regional instability, particularly in neighboring Yemen and the evolving situation in Syria, continues to pose security challenges.
