Having spent over 30 years in interrogation rooms with some of the most notorious Arab terrorists and spies, my position is clear: The West must view the Middle East and its leaders through a realistic lens. Al-Julani is not pragmatic in the Western sense but a sophisticated strategist who uses diplomacy, religious history, and Western misconceptions to achieve his goals. Only by understanding the cultural and religious context can the West formulate a realistic and informed policy toward leaders like Abu Muhammad al-Julani and his mentor, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
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Many Western researchers and journalists already have proclaimed the leader of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Abu Muhammad al-Julani, as a pragmatic figure. However, this belief, rooted in Western perspectives, reflects the cultural biases of the West more than the realities of the Middle East.
To understand why, we must examine how Western culture shapes the perception of leaders in the Middle East and the role al-Julani himself plays in this sophisticated diplomatic game.
Westerners are "logically constrained" by their cultural biases in understanding the Middle East due to fundamental cultural differences between the two regions. Westerners are the cultural product of over a century of devastating wars in Europe—conflicts that reshaped the global order and led to the adoption of values such as peace, prosperity, and cooperation among nations. After two world wars, with tens of millions dead and immense suffering, Western culture became centered around aspirations for economic stability, human rights, and international harmony.
In contrast, the Middle East evolved over millennia as a desert tribal culture, shaped by territorial conflicts and religious wars that continue to define the region. While religious wars in the West ended centuries ago, in the Middle East, the Sunni-Shia conflict and ethnic struggles remain central to ongoing conflicts. Over the past 30 years, Iran's Shiite hegemony dominated the Middle East through coalitions and threats. Today, however, the Sunni coalition, led by Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood, is gaining strength, particularly after the removal of Assad and the conquest of Syria.
Cognitive Bias in the Western View of al-Julani
The gap between Western values and Middle Eastern realities creates a significant cognitive dissonance for Western leaders, journalists, and researchers. They struggle to reconcile how a jihadist leader like al-Julani took power in Syria and rebrand himself as pragmatic leader to the world. How does the West mind bridge this gap? Through a mechanism of cognitive distortion.
This mechanism operates as follows. To reconcile their expectations with reality, Western observers interpret al-Julani's actions as signaling change. His adoption of Western attire, his avoidance of excessive violence against local populations, and his diplomatic language are seen as proof of pragmatism. However, the truth is that al-Julani's actions do not reflect Western values but rather a distinctly Islamic strategy known as taqiyya.
What is Taqiyya?
Taqiyya means a façade or concealment. It is a doctrine designed to protect Islamic believers from harm or persecution. If necessary the Quran permits Muslims to conceal their faith when faced with "disbelievers" (enemies of Islam) to protect themselves (Quran, Surah 28:3). It even allows a Muslim to declare disbelief when under duress, if faith remains intact in their heart. Even the Prophet Muhammad himself employed taqiyya in certain situations.
One famous example of Muhammad's use of taqiyya was the Treaty of Hudaybiyyah with the Quraysh tribe. Many scholars view this treaty as strategic taqiyya, as Muhammad agreed to a ceasefire with the intention of later conquering Mecca; a goal he eventually achieved.
Al-Julani's strategic sophistication reminds one of Yasser Arafat. In a speech in Johannesburg on May 10, 1994, Arafat compared the Oslo agreement Accords to the Treaty of Hudaybiyyah before it was broken. History has shown that Arafat meant what he said, and those who doubt it can review the Second Intifada and the Karine A weapons ship incident. In 2002, I had the privilege of interrogating the ship's crew, an investigation that traced the operation back to Arafat and his finance minister, Fuad Shubaki.
The Influence of Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Al-Julani has a masterful mentor, Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan. His cooperation with this Turkish dictator explains much of al-Julani's success in deceiving the West. As a stronghold of the Muslim Brotherhood, Turkey excels in diplomatic manipulation of Western perceptions. Through his mentorship, Turkey has taught al-Julani how to adopt a pragmatic facade that serves his ideological and political goals.
The Strategy of Hudna
A key tactic in al-Julani's playbook is the concept of hudna, meaning a temporary cessation of hostilities rooted in Islamic history. According to the Sunnah of the Prophet Muhammad, hudna is permitted when Muslims are in a position of weakness, allowing them to regroup and grow stronger before resuming conflict. When asked about relations with Israel or future wars, al-Julani does not rule out fighting. Instead, he frames the situation in terms of "the weakness of the believers" and "the good of the ummah" (the interest of the nation). This approach avoids committing to genuine peace and instead cloaks itself in religiously sanctioned postponement.
Consequently, researchers, politicians, and journalists in the West, who are lacking an understanding of the cultural and religious context, interpret al-Julani's words and actions as progress toward Islamic modernization. The simple truth is that al-Julani remains an ideological jihadist whose long-term goals exclude peace or prosperity in Western terms. A fundamentalist Muslim willing to make peace with Israel is, in a cultural-religious sense, as unlikely as an ultra-Orthodox Jew willing to eat non-kosher meat.
Realism in Perception
Having spent over 30 years in interrogation rooms with some of the most notorious Arab terrorists and spies, my conclusion is clear: The West must view the Middle East and its leaders through a realistic lens. Al-Julani is not pragmatic in the Western sense but a sophisticated strategist who uses diplomacy, religious history, and Western misconceptions to achieve his goals. Only by understanding the cultural and religious context can the West formulate a realistic and informed policy toward leaders like Abu Muhammad al-Julani and his mentor, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The author is a senior research associate at the Jerusalem-based Misgav Institute for National Security & Zionist Strategy. He served in a variety of senior roles in the Israeli Security Agency (ISA) as well as the Israel Police.
