Externally, the Iranian regime appears preoccupied with managing its proxies, future investments in Syria, and rehabilitating Hezbollah – but behind the scenes, Iranian society itself is approaching collapse. Air pollution, shortages of oil and gas, frequent power outages, unpaid salaries, and brain drain are just some of the problems that Iranian citizens face daily, but these issues are worsening daily with cumulative damage.
In conversations with researchers studying Iranian society, issues of corruption and sanctions emerge, leading to the collapse Iran faces today. Will all these troubles lead Iranian citizens to revolt? The question remains open.
So, what actually tops the agenda of Iranian citizens these days? "In recent weeks, it has mainly been the new hijab law, and in the past two years, it has generally been about the hijab and women's rights," says Thamar Eilam Gindin, an Iran specialist at the University of Haifa's Ezri Center for Iran and Persian Gulf Studies. "The fall of [President Bashar] Assad is also on the agenda, in two contexts: One is that [Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei's end is approaching because all his proxies are being eliminated one after another. The second relates to the electricity crisis: There are planned power outages, and I remind you that we're in a very cold period. Iranians are returning to heating with gas and oil, which never ceased but claims victims every winter. Last week even government offices didn't operate every day because there isn't enough electricity to run them."
According to Professor Meir Litvak, senior research associate at the Alliance Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University, the causes of the problems can be divided into sanctions, corruption, and poor management by the Iranian regime. "The sanctions make things very difficult for them, including in the oil sector. Iran needs to purchase equipment to renew oil production, but sanctions and costs make this challenging. The oil they do have is sold to the Chinese at a discount. Iran has potential for oil and gas exports, but they have shortages of both. There's a decrease in production and increase in consumption that leads, among other things, to problems in electricity production and supply."
The second factor is mismanagement of the Iranian economy. "There is corruption on a massive scale. Last year, Iran ranked 149th out of 190 countries on the global corruption index (with 190 being the most corrupt). There is also populist management, for example in fuel subsidies – a system that creates corruption and terrible waste of fuel, leading to fuel smuggling to neighboring countries. They also subsidize food and operate with several different exchange rates, which is another gateway to corruption. In global currency terms – 770,000 rials to the dollar were recorded, an all-time low that leads to food price increases."
Reports about what's happening in Iran paint a grim picture. Severe drug problems, routine executions, and dedicated "treatment" of modesty issues all point to evil combined with corruption by the regime and the Revolutionary Guards. Those who can leave. Too many remain and suffer.
According to Eilam Gindin, "brain drain is one of the biggest problems of the Islamic republic. They invest heavily in education, schools for gifted boys and girls – but then there are no positions available. Because for positions you need connections. So they flee to the West and excel there. For example, Maryam Mirzakhani, the first and only Iranian woman to be honored with the Fields Medal – the equivalent of the Nobel Prize in mathematics."
Litvak notes that "100,000 professionals leave Iran annually, mainly doctors and engineers. There is a severe shortage of nurses in the country. To the point where there's a phenomenon of nurse suicides due to overwork."
"On the other hand," says Eilam Gindin, "this situation doesn't provoke action. What prompts action are economic issues. Now they're waiting for the spark that will ignite the next riots, like the death of Mahsa Amini. This time the Islamic republic doesn't have allies like [Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan] Nasrallah, who sent 22,000 soldiers to help suppress the protests two years ago. The drying up of proxies also means there's no presence and no way to transfer equipment to Hamas and Hezbollah. It's also a blow to their reputation, because who would want to be under their wing now, if their wings no longer protect. This was also an important source of mercenaries in the regime's most difficult war – the war against the people, and it's disappearing."
Drug trafficking is also flourishing in Iran. Eilam Gindin continued, "Drug trafficking is one of the crimes punishable by death. In recent months, dozens of people have been executed each month for drugs (the other two leading charges are rape and murder). There's a severe drug problem because people want to escape reality and feel they have no hope."
Litvak points to all these issues and adds, "The electricity problems that erupted now due to gas shortages lead to the use of mazut, which causes terrible air pollution. Tehran, situated between mountains, suffers from a severe air pollution problem because the air is trapped there. In the last month, schools and government offices were closed after residents were told not to go outside. This pollution also affects other cities.
"Another problem that arises is that people like teachers work and don't receive their salary from the state on time. So there have been many strikes in the last two years. Oil industry workers aren't receiving wages and pensioners see their pensions being severely eroded. The population is aging, and therefore they need to raise the retirement age, but the regime hesitates because it's a political problem they're not comfortable dealing with."
Additionally, Litvak reports that a significant portion of Iranian banks are bankrupt. There's a water crisis due to improper management of water resources and the list goes on. All this, both conclude, creates a difficult reality for Iranian citizens.
Q: Do Iranian citizens follow the regime's investments in its war against Israel?
"They clearly do," Eilam Gindin says, explaining that Iranians are acutely aware of their government's foreign spending. For two decades, protestors have criticized the regime's prioritization of foreign conflicts over domestic needs, with a common protest chant rejecting involvement in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen in favor of focusing on Iran itself. This sentiment is also reflected in Iranian protest music, with songs criticizing the government for sending money to Palestine while Iranians struggle financially. The protesters particularly highlight how the regime supports foreign causes while Iranian ethnic minorities, such as the Kurds and Baluchis, face poverty and hunger at home.
"After Assad's fall, the extent of Iranian investment in Syria was revealed – staying there cost 50 billion dollars, plus another 30 billion dollars defined as Syria's debt to Iran, which presumably won't be repaid. With 80 billion dollars, they could have fed many poor people, built schools, and more. And all this while there isn't enough electricity for the proper operation of government offices."
Litvak adds, "Citizens see losses of tens of billions in Syria, and that's without estimating how much money was invested in Hamas and Hezbollah. Some Iranians understand this, but it's impossible to know what percentage. The corruption and poor management – every Iranian understands. The regime is begging to lift the sanctions because they're in a desperate economic situation. But Khamenei is very suspicious of the West. Maybe with Trump he'll try to go for a new agreement."
In Israel, they see the difficulties experienced by the Iranian people and often discuss – not nuclear destruction but the potentially more effective results of a revolution and toppling the ayatollahs' regime. Prime Minsiter Benjamin Netanyahu himself has repeatedly called on the Iranian people "not to lose hope, because the regime grows weaker every day." According to Litvak, Netanyahu isn't popular in Iran because he's perceived as the one who caused the US to exit the nuclear deal – which caused the severe economic damage the country is experiencing.
Q: If the situation is so difficult, why aren't the Iranian people revolting?
"Because of fear," Litvak says. "The regime has proven its efficiency and brutality in suppression, and that's deterring. This vile regime shot women in the eyes, and hundreds of young women lost at least one eye and were blinded during protests. They deliberately shot them in the chest. Hundreds were killed. This creates fear, and I understand that.
"Additionally, there's no leadership from religious figures and the opposition abroad is worthless. The Mujahedeen are hated because they're seen as traitors. There's no leadership to organize demonstrations. The regime controls the internet and monitors the network quickly to silence protests. Therefore, no one can know if they're alone or if there are others like them who want to protest. The Iranian also sees the results of the 'Arab Spring' and the chaos in various places and tells themselves 'who needs this?', maybe if we overthrow the clerics we'll get a Revolutionary Guards dictatorship?"
Nevertheless, Eilam Gindin estimates that Netanyahu's calls fall on attentive ears. "The Iranians are waiting for Bibi to do the work for them. After, from their perspective, he eliminated [Hamas Gaza leader Yahya] Sinwar, Nasrallah, [Hamas political bureau chief Ismail] Haniyeh, and several others less famous, they're calling on him to eliminate their leader too. There's admiration among Iranians in Iran and in exile for Bibi because of this, and it's somewhat heartbreaking."
Regarding uprising and revolution – Litvak and Eilam Gindin both find it difficult to predict. According to Eilam Gindin, "what will bring them to the streets isn't Netanyahu's call, but the next thing that happens, which we don't know what it will be. We didn't think the protests after Mahsa Amini's death would last more than a week or two and they lasted more than half a year, and in fact, the movement is still alive. On the other hand, the death of 16-year-old Armita Geravand a year later under exactly the same circumstances didn't turn into a massive protest, because the Islamic Republic learned from the previous year's mistakes and knew how to prevent it.
"You just need to look around us to understand that revolution in Iran is a plausible scenario. Whether it happens tomorrow, in a year, or in 20 years – that's another question. What happens in Syria now will determine the future of the protest. In 2011, they saw the Arab Spring and even tried to join it. Then they saw Saddam Hussein go and ISIS arrive. In Syria, the Arab Spring turned into a civil war that only ended now, after 14 years, and we don't know what will be. Also, in other countries that had an Arab Spring, the situation isn't great. They already know from 1979 that sometimes, whoever replaces the dictator is a worse dictator."
Eilam Gindin suggests that while a revolution in Iran seems inevitable, its timing remains uncertain. The outcome in Syria will likely influence Iranian protesters' willingness to act. Their caution stems from observing the mixed results of regional uprisings: the Arab Spring's transformation into prolonged civil war in Syria, the rise of ISIS after Saddam Hussein's fall in Iraq, and disappointing outcomes in other countries that experienced popular revolts. The Iranian people are particularly wary, having learned from their own 1979 revolution that overthrowing one authoritarian regime can sometimes lead to an even more oppressive replacement.
