Turkey's attempt to turn Syria into a client state, replacing Iran and Russia as key influencers, is a growing concern for Israeli officials. A senior political source in Jerusalem confessed that Turkey's activities in Syria have become a top priority in recent days.
This concern is evident: Two critical discussions are scheduled in the coming days by Israeli leadership: one at the Defense Ministry, and another led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israeli officials view Turkey's moves in Syria as carrying "the potential for heavy friction between the two countries."
Israel is preparing for the possibility of Turkey becoming a strategic threat, as reflected in the The Nagel Commission's report. The Commission, established to formulate recommendations on Israel's force building needs and security budget in the coming decade, mentioned Turkey 15 times in the report, highlighting regional instability and the potential for rapid changes, including attempts to destabilize the Jordanian monarchy, shifts in Egyptian and Turkish approaches, and rising friction with Israel.
One section of the report explicitly warns the prime minister about the risks: "The problem will escalate if Syrian forces effectively become a 'Turkish proxy,' as part of Turkey's ambition to restore Ottoman-era influence. The presence of Turkish forces or their proxies in Syria could heighten the risk of a direct Israel-Turkey confrontation."
What could lead to this scenario? The Turkish military's entry into Syria, which could result in the rapid arming of the country, and military actions against the Kurds in the country's east, potentially spilling over to Israel's doorstep. This threat is described by the Commission as a "potential for drastic change" in relations with Turkey, a country with which Israel maintains ongoing diplomatic ties, albeit currently based solely on mutual interests.
In response to the tectonic shifts in Syria, Western countries are rushing to build bridges with the new regime. Recently, the foreign ministers of Germany and France visited Damascus. Moreover, there is a growing trend in Western capitals, including Washington, to remove the main rebel group in the new government, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), from the list of terrorist organizations. "We cannot afford to do otherwise," Western officials explained to senior Israeli figures regarding their approach to the group, which was previously affiliated with al-Qaeda.
Concerns for the fate of the Kurds
Israel's concerns can be divided into two main issues. The first is the continued smuggling of weapons through Lebanon under the auspices of the new Syrian regime. The second is Erdogan's potential exploitation of the situation to crush the autonomous Kurdish rule in eastern Syria, which could result in a massacre of the Kurdish population in the region. In a recent statement on the matter, Erdogan vowed to "bury in the ground, with their weapons, those who choose terror and violence," referring to the Kurdish militias in the area.
The Kurds have a long-standing relationship with Israel, but Israeli officials emphasize that Israel does not seek direct confrontation with Turkey. The issue of military protection for Kurdish autonomy in Syria is considered a responsibility of the US.
Immediately after Assad's fall, the IDF outlined two possible scenarios for Syria: one in which the country would be ruled by al-Julani (Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, leader of HTS), or a division of the country into cantons with varying levels of autonomy. The latter scenario is Israel's preferred outcome.
In practice, Israeli officials say Turkey has become the most influential power in Damascus, replacing Iran's Shiite axis with a Sunni-Turkish alignment. While this alignment is not yet seen as an outright adversary, it may offer safe harbor for terrorist groups. "The arena is multidimensional," a senior diplomat noted. "Turkey's interests in turning Syria into a client state, thereby bolstering its regional influence, are clear. Our response includes on-the-ground actions and preparing for potential threats that could escalate rapidly."
A counter-alliance to the Sultan?
Amid public statements in support of the Kurds, Israel is strengthening ties with Turkey's historical rivals. In recent months, Israel signed a series of defense agreements with Greece and Cyprus, including a €2 billion deal involving advanced radar and interception systems for Greece. Cyprus has already received Israeli-made Barak MX air defense missiles to replace its Russian systems.
In contrast, Israel's unique relationship with Azerbaijan, marked by advanced arms sales and substantial oil imports via Turkey, adds another layer of complexity. Israeli weapons played a crucial role in Azerbaijan's victory over Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh. Given Turkey's close alliance with Azerbaijan, tensions between Jerusalem and Ankara could test these ties as well.
