Negotiations between Israel and Hamas have resumed in Doha through mediators, as Israel and the US push to extend the first phase of the deal in exchange for a ceasefire lasting until after Passover. However, the core obstacle to ending the war remains Hamas' refusal to disarm and relinquish its military and civil control over the Gaza Strip.
Parallel negotiations are ongoing, primarily involving Egypt and Saudi Arabia, with the UAE, Israel, and the US also involved, while Qatar and the Palestinian Authority remain on standby. As part of these discussions, Egypt has proposed several initiatives aimed at securing Saudi approval for its plan. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, along with the PA, consider Hamas' disarmament a fundamental condition for any post-war arrangement.
Khaled Abu Toameh, a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs specializing in Palestinian politics, warns that any reconstruction effort without Hamas' disarmament would replicate the Lebanese model, where a terrorist organization holds real power while an impotent government exists only on paper. "A new government in Gaza would focus on reconstruction, while Hamas would simply regroup and plan its next attack against Israel," he cautions.
Despite PA opposition, Egypt believes Hamas can be "tamed" if granted some level of authority in Gaza, contingent on a long-term ceasefire that would transform it into a political faction while stripping it of its military power.
Hamas rejects any compromise on its status post war
Although Hamas has suffered heavy losses, losing approximately 80% of its forces, it continues to project an image of control and military strength through prisoner release "ceremonies" and a carefully managed media campaign, aided by its propaganda outlets such as Al Jazeera.
The terrorist organization is actively replenishing its ranks with fresh recruits, funded by money accumulated from US and international aid, as well as from the black-market sale of humanitarian supplies it has seized. Sources in Gaza report that new recruits receive a large food package, a $50 grant, and a monthly salary of up to $100.
Hamas' leadership in Gaza dictates the strategy: projecting strength while holding onto its bargaining chip, the hostages, and refusing any compromise on its post-war status. The group relies on Israel's internal political disputes and international hesitancy over resuming hostilities. This is why Hamas refuses a full hostage release without guarantees of a long-term ceasefire and immunity for its leadership.
A month ago, reports suggested that some Hamas leaders were willing to discuss disarmament and exclude the organization from governing Gaza's reconstruction. Since then, Hamas has hardened its stance, now refusing to discuss disarmament and insisting on playing a role in post-war governance.
"Hamas' disarmament is a red line," Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri declared last week. "We will not accept a deal that trades weapons for the reconstruction of Gaza and humanitarian aid. Our weapons, and those of other resistance groups, are non-negotiable and not subject to discussion."
Saudi Arabia and the UAE oppose Hamas retaining its weapons
Hamas' intransigence complicates efforts to reach a compromise, but Egypt is still trying. A key principle outlined in Egypt's reconstruction plan is the concept of "one authority, one gun," meaning that only the governing body would have the right to bear arms. The plan also includes a proposal for Jordan and Egypt to train "independent" Palestinian security forces to maintain order, an effort the Egyptians state is already underway.
Egypt recognizes that someone will have to forcibly remove Hamas' weapons, and these independent forces would be unable to do so without substantial military backing. One proposal suggested Hamas' military wing be gradually integrated into these security forces, but Saudi Arabia has rejected this.
According to Arab sources, a second, previously undisclosed Egyptian proposal involves a long-term ceasefire, after which most members of Hamas' military wing would surrender their weapons, including rocket units. These weapons would be held in trust by an Arab entity inside Gaza, to be returned only if the ceasefire is violated and Hamas needs to "defend itself." A small, pre-approved unit would retain its weapons but be incorporated into the new security forces under the new governing authority. Hamas has not yet responded to this proposal, but both Saudi Arabia and the UAE oppose allowing Hamas to retain even a single Kalashnikov bullet.
A Gulf source told Israel Hayom that, so far, every Egyptian proposal has allowed Hamas to retain some level of military capability and control over Gaza.
Israel's demand: "We adhere to the Trump plan - Evacuating Gaza for reconstruction"
Another major sticking point is Israel's demand that Hamas' leaders in Gaza leave the Strip as a precondition for ending the war. Egypt previously assured Hamas leaders of safe passage if they relinquished control and went into exile, but Hamas rejected this offer. The latest proposal suggests a limited number of military leaders go into exile to a secret location under US guarantees that Israel will not target them. Hamas has also rejected this idea.
Egypt's efforts were initially encouraged by direct talks between former Trump envoy Adam Boehler and Hamas officials. In past interviews, Boehler suggested that Hamas could be part of the solution. However, under internal pressure from the US and opposition from Israel and Saudi Arabia, the US administration has backtracked on this idea. Nevertheless, Hamas viewed this as an incentive to continue negotiations.
These challenges have direct implications for the ongoing negotiations in Doha. All parties understand that a final settlement remains distant, leading them to focus on an interim agreement—although Hamas is making this difficult as well.
Israel's official position, as stated by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's spokesperson, Omri Doster, is to adhere to the Trump plan, which calls for the evacuation of Gaza to facilitate its reconstruction. A senior Israeli official confirmed that Israel's primary focus is securing the release of as many living hostages as possible. If it becomes evident that further hostage releases cannot be secured through negotiations, Israel will have no choice but to resume military operations to "clear" the Gaza Strip.
