Israel is engaged in a dual effort to shape both its northern fronts - Syria and Lebanon. One through military action, and the other through a combination of diplomacy and force.
The Syrian front was the focus of a series of airstrikes late Monday night. Such heightened aerial activity has not been observed since the end of the northern war, highlighting the scale of the targets struck, primarily air defense systems and military compounds, to prevent the new regime's forces from consolidating their position south of Damascus.
These strikes likely relied on accumulated intelligence indicating that the Damascus regime seeks to reinforce its hold on the area, where Israel has multiple interests, including securing its Golan border, protecting the Druze community, and preventing rebel forces from posing a serious threat to Jordan's stability. In the background, there is also the massacre perpetrated by regime forces over the weekend against members of the Alawite sect, reinforcing the understanding that behind Syria's seemingly moderate façade, led by President Abu Mohammad al-Julani, lies the same terrorist organization that embraces the extremist ideology of ISIS and does not hesitate to eliminate its adversaries.
For these reasons, Israel is expected not only to maintain its hold on the areas it has taken in the Syrian Golan but to deepen its presence there. In recent weeks, Israel has increased its proactive activity in the region, both through offensive actions targeting military installations and engineering operations to establish a buffer zone. The IDF has divided the area between the border and Damascus into three sub-regions:
- A buffer zone up to 5 kilometers from the border.
- A security zone up to 15 kilometers from the border.
- A broader influence zone extending to the Damascus-Suwayda highway.
The IDF operates in all these zones with varying intensity and methods.
Meanwhile, al-Julani is focused on consolidating his rule in Syria and signed a significant agreement yesterday with the country's Kurdish minority. At some point, he is expected to turn his attention to the southern front and demand Israel's withdrawal from the areas it has taken. Israel must be prepared for this moment, both militarily and diplomatically. While the IDF can retreat and defend Israel from within its own borders, it must ensure that the new Syrian army does not establish itself in the evacuated areas and that the Turkish military does not gain unrestricted access to operate in Syria and create a significant threat to Israel.
The Lebanese front - A strategy of carrots and sticks
Simultaneously, in the Lebanese front, Israel is pursuing a combined strategy of diplomatic incentives and military deterrence. The "sticks" came in the form of an airstrike on a Hezbollah compound and the targeted killing of an operative in the group's aerial unit, allegedly involved in restoring capabilities damaged during the war. These frequent strikes serve a dual purpose: they deny Hezbollah key knowledge and capabilities while also creating a "new normal" of Israeli offensive activity, sending a clear message that Israel will not return to the previous deterrence equations that allowed Hezbollah to rebuild its military threat in Lebanon.
The "carrots" came in the form of the release of five Lebanese nationals detained during the war. This release was part of ongoing negotiations in Naqoura, under the existing dialogue mechanism between the sides. Previously, this mechanism had three participants, Israel, Lebanon, and UNIFIL (the UN peacekeeping force). Today, it has four, with the inclusion of US General Jasper Jeffers, who established the supervisory mechanism for implementing the ceasefire.
This week, it was reported that this framework will advance discussions on several key issues, including:
- The continued presence of the IDF in five positions in southern Lebanon.
- Disputes between Israel and Lebanon over border demarcation.
- The release of additional Lebanese detainees held by Israel.
The border demarcation issue is particularly significant, because resolving it would strip Hezbollah of a central justification for its military activity in the region.
The fact that these talks are ongoing is encouraging, as it delays the potential for renewed war (which Hezbollah is not eager for) and provides Israel with additional time to dismantle remaining Hezbollah military capabilities in southern Lebanon. This process also fosters a dynamic that strengthens Lebanon's new president, Joseph Aoun, thereby indirectly weakening Hezbollah. The hope is that Lebanon's army will eventually complete its deployment along the border and effectively counter Hezbollah's expected attempts to regain its foothold in the area.
