While it is still unclear whether what appears to be progress in negotiations to end the war will ultimately lead to an agreement, it can cautiously be said that the chances have increased over the past two weeks. There has been a shift in approach by both the mediators and the parties involved, Israel and Hamas, from pursuing a temporary agreement, due to fundamental disagreements, to seeking a final deal for the return of all hostages and an end to the war. This shift follows indications that Hamas may be willing to show significantly more flexibility than its leadership's statements to Arab media would suggest.
The apparent change in Hamas' position is significant. Reports from Cairo and Arab media outlets indicate that the terrorist organization is now at least willing to discuss the two core issues that had previously been outright rejected: the demilitarization of Gaza, meaning the disarmament of Hamas, and the departure of the organization's leaders from the Gaza Strip. Throughout the negotiations, which have been ongoing since the early days of the war, Hamas had refused even to entertain these possibilities. In recent weeks, amid growing pressure, Hamas had even hardened its official stance. Nevertheless, the group also floated counter-proposals, such as remaining in Gaza with armed units operating under the guise of a "Palestinian police force."
Although no decisions or agreements have been finalized, the mere fact that these contentious topics are now on the table suggests a real shift. For example, Al Arabiya reported that Hamas has engaged in talks regarding conditions for the departure of its senior leaders from Gaza. Such discussions inherently touch on the issue of disarmament, as without leadership and fighters, there would be little reason for weapons to remain.
American and Arab diplomatic sources confirm there has been progress. According to one such source, the move from talks on a temporary arrangement to a comprehensive framework for ending the war aligns with the directives of President Donald Trump, who hopes to visit the region next month without hearing the sounds of explosions from Gaza. "This visit is dramatic for Saudi Arabia, Israel and the entire region. Ending the war or at least achieving a ceasefire is a crucial condition for its success," one diplomat said.
While there are still minor disagreements on other points — such as the timeline for hostage releases, the number of terrorists to be freed, and the renewal of humanitarian supplies — the outlines of an agreement are taking shape.
The framework currently under discussion in various forms envisions an immediate release of half of the living hostages in several short stages, coupled with the release of prisoners and the renewal of humanitarian supplies.
The Israel Defense Forces would redeploy in Gaza, meaning withdrawal from most of the areas captured during the latest operations, following the completion of these releases. Negotiations would then begin for a final phase, which would address the reconstruction and governance of Gaza (with a proposed international committee led by the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia), demilitarization, and the departure of Hamas' remaining leaders along with their elite fighting forces (the Nukhba and other units). A timetable would also be set for a full or near-full Israeli withdrawal, accompanied by security arrangements and a declaration ending hostilities for a period of five to seven years.
The main obstacle: Hamas' extremist faction
Hamas has yet to publicly accept the two most contentious conditions but has begun discussing terms related to them, including demands for guarantees and immunity for its members during the agreement's term, involvement in reconstruction and future governance, and the integration of its forces into security apparatuses that would control Gaza.
The main obstacle, and the factor that could still derail the entire process, remains the extremist faction of Hamas leadership entrenched inside Gaza, led by Mohammed Sinwar and his circle of commanders hiding in the Strip's tunnels. Intelligence assessments offer several scenarios regarding Sinwar: that he will fight to the bitter end, inflicting maximum damage on Israel and Gaza alike to uphold the "resistance"; that he will seek to delay an agreement in hopes that internal pressures within Israel, protests and political divisions, combined with military fatigue and Trump's pressure for a ceasefire to secure his regional "mega-deal" with Saudi Arabia, will yield better terms; or, more optimistically, that he may recognize Hamas' dire situation — heavy losses, rising popular discontent, and the lack of support from Arab states — and therefore agree to terms, even falsely claiming victory.
According to Israeli and American analyses, this situation was achieved thanks to sustained military pressure: a phased takeover of neighborhoods and the use of force greater than in previous rounds of fighting. Israel now enjoys strong American support, both in terms of military supplies, which had been severely lacking, and diplomatic backing. However, this support may not last indefinitely, and Trump continues to signal his desire for an end to the fighting.
A crucial additional lever has been the halt to massive humanitarian convoys into Gaza, which Hamas had exploited to consolidate control, recruit fighters, and stockpile food and fuel. Israel plans to resolve this by setting up supply centers controlled by the IDF and managed by international aid organizations, a slow process due to the United Nations' refusal to cooperate under Israeli conditions, but nonetheless progressing.
The moves behind Egypt and Qatar's shift
The Trump administration, unlike its predecessor, used direct threats against Egypt to compel meaningful mediation efforts aimed at the necessary solution for Gaza: disarmament and the removal of Hamas' ruling capabilities. True to Trump's style, this began with a dramatic proposal, the full evacuation of Gaza for reconstruction purposes, which led discussions closer to Israel's core demands.
After weeks of pressure, Egypt informed Hamas leadership that there would be no end to the war without the group's agreement to disarm and relinquish leadership over the Strip. This helps explain recent defiant public statements by Hamas officials regarding the sanctity of their weapons.
The pressure campaign then turned to Qatar, Hamas' main sponsor and host. International sources told Israel Hayom that Qatar's alignment with Egypt came during Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi's recent visit to Doha, where he persuaded Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani to adopt the demand for demilitarization.
This message has since been relayed to Hamas in Doha negotiations, though Hamas leaders there continue to publicly reject any surrender of arms or abandonment of "resistance." However, they now stand isolated. Last week, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas publicly called on Hamas to disarm and become a political party, reiterating his "one gun" principle and angrily blaming Hamas for the devastation of Gaza and the deaths of tens of thousands.
The significance of Abbas' public statement, alongside Egypt's and Qatar's new demands, is that Hamas is now alone, even in the Arab world. When the official Palestinian leadership blames Hamas for the destruction and calls for the return of hostages and the surrender of weapons, it becomes harder for Hamas to find allies.
In the past two weeks, there has been a flurry of contacts between Egyptian and Qatari mediators and Hamas representatives, with Israeli officials — led by Mossad Director David Barnea — being kept informed and conveying Israel's position. Barnea, who has remained involved throughout, is seen as closely aligned with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer was brought in primarily to manage the American angle and to ensure continued pressure on Egypt and Qatar.
These talks have produced the broad framework for ending the war, now under active discussion.
What's next?
Negotiations are expected to continue for days, possibly weeks, due to the outstanding disputes and the resistance from Hamas' extremist faction. Israel is maintaining silence and secrecy to avoid leaks that could spark opposition within the hawkish wing of the governing coalition.
A coalition source told Israel Hayom that it would be hard to imagine opposition to a deal that removes Hamas from power and demilitarizes Gaza, but warned that resistance could arise regarding specific clauses, such as Israel's withdrawal and the ceasefire timeline.
