Israel Hayom has learned that Qatari officials supported Hamas in rejecting the latest proposal presented to the terror organization. The Israeli military is expected to increase pressure in Gaza in the coming days if there is no progress in negotiations. The plan has not received final approval as Israeli officials want to give another opportunity to advance negotiations.
The increased activity is expected to include mobilizing several reserve divisions to capture additional territories in Gaza and increase friction with Hamas. A framework for this plan, developed by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), was presented to the Diplomatic-Security Cabinet last week but has not yet received final approval. This is because Israeli officials want to give Hamas another opportunity to advance negotiations in an effort to return as many hostages as possible quickly.
It is possible that Hamas would have accepted the Egyptian compromise proposal due to a combination of military pressure from the IDF, the halting of humanitarian aid, and heavy diplomatic pressure applied by Egypt and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. However, the agreement was not advanced because of weakness in the Israeli negotiating team led by Minister Ron Dermer, and because United States Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff's main focus was directed toward mediation efforts between Russia and Ukraine and nuclear talks with Iran.
Additionally, it turns out that Qatar exerted counter-pressure not to accept the proposal, claiming that a better agreement for Hamas would be possible in the future, including the release of all hostages in exchange for ending the war. This would be an agreement that Israel would find difficult to accept because it also includes a ceasefire for 5-7 years with international guarantees, as well as the rehabilitation of Gaza, measures that would effectively preserve Hamas rule.
These previously unpublished details reveal three insights. First, contrary to statements by cabinet ministers that the military operation in Gaza is stagnating, IDF activity has actually succeeded in creating effective pressure on Hamas that could have been translated into a diplomatic achievement in the form of a partial agreement to release hostages.
The second insight is that the current negotiating team, headed by Dermer, is not effectively advancing the interests of the hostages. A source familiar with the negotiations described Dermer's activities as "between borderline and negative," and said that Israel is not pushing for a solution. Dermer's role was to pressure the Americans, led by Witkoff, to put pressure on Qatar. This did not happen, and Qatar pursued an independent policy that effectively torpedoed the talks.
The third insight relates to the "Qatargate" affair, which is currently under investigation. Associates of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who worked for Qatar promoted interests that contradict those of the State of Israel and even endanger its national security. This mainly involves the negative campaign conducted against Egypt, which claimed that Cairo had a role in the deception preceding the October 7 attack. These are baseless claims that damaged the strategic relations between the countries.
This affair, which forms the basis for the dismissal of Ronen Bar from his position as head of the Shin Bet security service, greatly concerns Netanyahu and his circle. In recent days, there has been a surge of thousands of percent in publications by government ministers and right-wing activists against the organization and its head, as part of an organized campaign aimed at smearing Bar and enabling his dismissal. Several polls published recently show that the public is less impressed by this. The trust they place in Bar and the Shin Bet is higher than that placed in Netanyahu and his government, and an overwhelming majority believes that the investigation into the Qatari affair should be fully pursued and Netanyahu's advisers should be removed from his circle.
The polls also point to a consistent trend in three other central issues: establishing a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 attack, drafting ultra-Orthodox men, and prioritizing the hostage issue over intensifying the war. These issues are intertwined because if a near-term agreement leading to the release of hostages, even a partial one with a ceasefire, is not possible, the IDF will need to expand its operations. As a result, a heavy burden will again be placed on the reserve system at a time when a large part of Israeli society avoids service with the encouragement of the government, which is trying to continue evading responsibility for the failure.
All signs indicate that Netanyahu hoped this discussion would be pushed aside under the cover of the planned attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, as reported. The Israeli Air Force still maintains high readiness for such an attack if nuclear talks between the United States and Iran fail, but the chance of this does not now seem high. Both sides are expressing optimism about the possibility of reaching an agreement soon, over which Israel's influence will be very limited.
It is doubtful whether such an agreement will be signed before President Donald Trump's expected visit to the Persian Gulf in mid-May. The visit, primarily focused on promoting deals, is also expected to be significant for Israel, as some of the topics discussed – civilian nuclear technology in Saudi Arabia alongside an unprecedented arms deal worth hundreds of billions of dollars – will directly affect its national security. In theory, this is an opportunity for Israel to incorporate its interests into the agreement, and perhaps even achieve a comprehensive deal in Gaza that would allow the return of hostages, demilitarization of the Strip, and establishment of an alternative government to Hamas, but this will not happen with the current composition of the government.
As a result, and if there is no turning point in the coming days, the IDF is expected to increase military pressure in the Gaza Strip. This will necessarily lead to an increase in casualties among IDF soldiers: the chain of incidents and casualties in recent days was evidence that Hamas is studying Israeli activity and responding to it. The fighting will also bring an increase in casualties among Palestinian civilians in Gaza, an issue that concerns Israel against the background of growing international criticism.
