It was impossible not to feel emotional about soldier Edan Alexander's release. Every hostage who emerges alive from Gaza represents a visible miracle, rekindling hope that additional captives suffering in Hamas tunnels might yet be rescued.
Nevertheless, we must not allow scenes of family reunion joy to obscure the dangerous diplomatic low point Israel has reached with this release. The operation occurred behind Israel's back without any coordination, as the Trump administration engaged directly with a terrorist organization that Israel aims to eliminate. Even without considering promises that Americans may have made or implied regarding humanitarian aid and combat cessation, Hamas received substantial legitimization from Washington.
The statement from the Prime Minister's Office claiming the release resulted from Israel's military pressure in Gaza was an awkward attempt, destined to fail, to conceal this reality. Military pressure undoubtedly hurts Hamas, but in this exchange, the organization strategically outmaneuvered Israel.
Those suggesting Israel "paid no price" are deceiving themselves and the public. Even without releasing prisoners as would certainly be required in a "normal" prisoner exchange, the price Israel paid is multiple times higher and more dangerous at every conceivable level.
Trump's report card
In a WhatsApp group of a reserve unit scheduled for mobilization next month for extended operations, one commander wrote cynically on Monday that soldiers should hurry to secure foreign passports before returning to combat. This crystallized the disturbing sentiment also expressed by families of other hostages – that instead of the Israeli government protecting Alexander who fought on its behalf and under its orders, the United States stepped in to rescue him.
The disappointment many on the Israeli right have expressed recently about Trump's policies has been unmistakable. Some commentators and writers are assigning him grades; others offer recommendations. Both groups err twice: first, because Trump isn't an Israeli agent but an American president safeguarding his country's interests. Second, because the person responsible for Israeli citizens is their prime minister, not a foreign leader – however friendly.
Video: Edan Alexander's family react to his release / Hostage and Missing Families Forum
In this collision of interests, Netanyahu made several critical missteps that led to Israel's current predicament. Like connecting dots in a child's drawing, the pattern becomes clear: the confidential discussions Americans conducted with the Houthis until achieving an agreement that abandoned Israel to confront them alone; the dialogue they maintain with Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) and with new Syrian leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani, who mere months ago was their bitter enemy; nuclear talks with Iran where Israel's influence remains peripheral; and now the separate agreement with Hamas that secured Alexander's release.
Final opportunity for course correction
We can broaden the perspective further. Consider the agreements Trump is expected to sign during his visit to three Gulf states, portions of which – as reported in Israel Hayom on Sunday – threaten Israel's qualitative military advantage and could eventually pose direct security threats. Or examine Turkey's dramatically elevated status, as it prepares to host the Putin-Zelensky summit on Wednesday and may collect dividends by reinforcing its position in Syria while presenting a direct threat to Israel.
While Israel cannot alter these realities entirely, it can influence most of them. Alexander's release provides an opportunity, perhaps the final one, to decide whether to stabilize the ship or accelerate its sinking.
Dispatching a negotiating team to Doha represents a necessary measure, but dialogue alone or shifting responsibility to Hamas will prove ineffective. The organization recognizes the trap Israel has created for itself and will attempt to exploit it fully to maximize benefits.
Historians will undoubtedly examine Israel's missteps. The decision to avoid determining "the day after" at the war's outset, leaving Hamas in power; rejecting a comprehensive deal earlier, costing numerous hostages their lives; vacillation regarding humanitarian assistance, which strengthened Hamas; pursuing extreme ideologies and figures that pushed Israel into the dangerous position of an international pariah whose leaders face global arrest warrants, while enemy leaders receive warm welcomes abroad.
Israel's strategic errors
Should Israel pursue a deal, it would regain domestic and international credibility, while Hamas' ultimate defeat could be achieved later. Should it choose continued fighting, it risks further isolation and potentially losing Washington's backing. Netanyahu's remarks about needing independence from American security assistance were illogical and potentially dangerous – in the current Washington climate, someone might be tempted to implement them.
Instead of participating in photo opportunities with a hostage whose release he played no role in securing, Netanyahu should return to fundamental issues: for the umpteenth time, he must choose between Israel's national interests and his personal and political interests. While this dilemma is familiar to him, it appears that both he and Israel have exhausted their time. The decisions he makes in the coming days will profoundly impact the nation's future.
