US President Donald Trump's visit to Riyadh represents a pinnacle moment in his diplomatic journey across the Middle East, designed to bolster American influence throughout the region. The US administration has finalized an enormous weapons agreement with Saudi Arabia valued at $142 billion, triggering alarm among Israel's defense establishment. The agreement potentially threatens to undermine the "qualitative edge" of advanced weaponry that Israel maintains over other countries in the Middle East, including those not actively engaged in hostilities with Israel.
In parallel, Riyadh has pledged an unprecedented investment of roughly $600 billion in the American economy, possibly constituting one of the most significant economic exchanges ever conducted between the two countries. This push to strengthen relations with the Saudi kingdom isn't unprecedented. President Joe Biden, despite harboring ideological reservations about Saudi governance, also sought to establish a defense partnership with the Saudis while promoting normalization with Israel. Both administrations extended offers of sophisticated weaponry to Saudi Arabia to enhance its defensive capabilities against escalating threats across the Middle East. The kingdom maintains substantial, technologically advanced military forces equipped with Western armaments.
The American initiative unfolds against a backdrop of increasingly warm Saudi-Chinese relations in recent years, a development that troubles Washington, which views China as its primary rival for global influence.
Security needs
The weapons package under consideration addresses Saudi Arabia's pressing security requirements, following conflicts with neighboring states in the recent past. Reuters sources indicated ongoing negotiations between the US and Saudi Arabia regarding the acquisition of F-35 fighter jets, despite domestic American opposition to such a sale. Authorization of this purchase would undoubtedly establish a precedent as the first transfer of the stealth aircraft to any Middle Eastern nation besides Israel.
Reports suggest the agreement will also encompass modern Hercules transport aircraft to modernize the Saudi Air Force's aging fleet, alongside radar systems and missile technology. These additions complement previously completed transactions, including $3 billion worth of AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles and MQ-9B SeaGuardian unmanned aerial vehicles produced by General Atomics.
Saudi Arabia's defensive vulnerabilities were starkly exposed in 2019 when Yemen's Houthi forces deployed drones that successfully struck Aramco facilities within the kingdom, inflicting billions of dollars in economic damage within minutes. This incident revealed critical weaknesses in Saudi air defense capabilities, despite enormous investments in cutting-edge systems from American and European suppliers intended to safeguard its oil production and refining infrastructure.
Riyadh officials were shocked to discover the extent of Saudi airspace vulnerability and how their expensive Western-supplied defense systems failed to counter such threats effectively. While Saudi Arabia operates American-built Patriot systems and French Mistral anti-aircraft missiles, a combination of outdated operational protocols for radar systems, obsolete equipment, and inherent challenges posed by the vast size and varied terrain of the country leaves Riyadh facing significant air defense challenges.
The Saudis also confront threats from Iran, and Shiite armed groups in Iraq. The American THAAD missile defense system, previously stationed in Saudi Arabia to counter ballistic missile threats, has since been reassigned to protect Israel. Following Saudi forces' training on this system in the United States, Riyadh now seeks to purchase its own THAAD batteries as part of the developing weapons agreement.
While pursuing military reinforcement, the Saudis simultaneously employ their characteristically cautious diplomatic approach. They refrain from joining American operations against the Houthis and urge Washington not to endorse Israel's advocacy for strikes on Iranian soil to disrupt its nuclear program. Currently, the kingdom prioritizes building deterrence capabilities without heightening regional tensions, seeking an alliance with the United States that provides security guarantees without entangling Saudi Arabia in direct confrontations with adversaries.
