Perhaps the most important topic President Donald Trump is discussing with Gulf state leaders is one that could end the war in Gaza and remove the main obstacle from his ambitious plan – the mega deal – for a new order in the Middle East and a long-term solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
A senior diplomatic source from one of the Gulf states said, defining the issue of the deal to end the war in Gaza and from it the framework for a comprehensive regional arrangement. Behind the scenes, feverish contacts are taking place these days with Israel and other parties, with efforts focused on achieving a goal very important to Trump – an agreement on a ceasefire before the end of his visit to the region.
Israeli officials have received strong signals that if a ceasefire materializes, the פresident may meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The ceasefire dominated discussions between Netanyahu and United States Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff on Tuesday, and remained the central focus for the Israeli delegation in Doha.
The fundamental proposal has been available for months, but Trump's election victory and his decision to make the Gulf his first presidential trip destination accelerated it into an extensive series of contacts and draft exchanges.
The initiative originated from Israel's strongest Gulf ally, the United Arab Emirates, led by Mohammed bin Zayed and his brother, Foreign Minister Abdullah. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman added his considerable influence, with his Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan presenting the comprehensive framework in Washington during his visit approximately a month ago. The involvement of these two nations proves crucial as they generally align with most Israeli requirements, unlike Qatar and Egypt.
During meetings between President Trump's team and bin Salman's delegation, they further discussed the plan. The saudi Foreign minister stated, "We agreed on the necessity to end the war and release the hostages" – broad language indicating agreement with the overall framework.
Israeli officials have received strong signals that if a ceasefire materializes, the פresident may meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The ceasefire dominated discussions between Netanyahu and United States Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff on Tuesday, and remained the central focus for the Israeli delegation in Doha.
The details, according to information obtained by Israel Hayom from Arab and American sources, exist in several versions with varying formulations, but share identical core principles:
- An immediate ceasefire will begin based on the Witkoff plan, with half the hostages released within days, launching negotiations for a complete end to the war.
- Hamas will release all Israeli hostages during negotiations, including remains of the deceased, while Israel will release Palestinian prisoners following the established formula. Humanitarian supplies and aid to Gaza residents will resume.
- Israel will fully terminate military operations in Gaza and, following a transition period with security guarantees implemented, will withdraw completely to the border.
- Hamas will surrender all weapons – from rockets to small arms – to an Arab entity. Senior military leaders from Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and other resistance organizations must leave Gaza.
- Temporary housing camps will be established during reconstruction, with provisions for leaving Gaza, prioritizing medical evacuations for ill and wounded residents.
- Gaza reconstruction will commence immediately upon declaring the war's end, administered by an Arab-American committee taking control of the Strip. This committee will include the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, the United States, and European representation. Palestinians will have representation through civilian experts, engineers, management and economic professionals.
- Under this framework, the Palestinian Authority would give its endorsement and later join reconstruction management after implementing substantial reforms. This management process would continue for approximately ten years. PA participation depends on structural reforms designed to improve operational efficiency and reduce corruption.
- The security issue – maintaining order and preventing renewed attacks against Israel – will follow gradual implementation beginning with international, Arab, and Palestinian forces assuming responsibility for areas outside Israeli control, alongside Hamas disarmament. The framework doesn't exclude the possibility that individuals who served in Hamas police functions could eventually participate in Palestinian police forces.
Within these reforms, Emirati officials insisted the Palestinian education system undergo meaningful transformation and eliminate anti-Israel incitement. A comparable process occurred in Saudi Arabia's education system, with both Gulf nations overseeing this transformation.
From Israel's perspective, securing a better arrangement seems improbable, yet it contradicts positions held by Netanyahu's government factions, including within Likud, who advocate for Israeli security control over Gaza with eventual Israeli settlement reestablishment. The security perimeter issue remains unresolved. Israel will struggle to accept short-term withdrawal and will demand long-term control over strategically dominant areas, particularly the northern containment zone. Additionally, substantial political elements oppose Palestinian Authority involvement in Gaza reconstruction management and governance.
Video: Trump being welcomed in Qatar on May 14, 2025 / Credit: Reuters
Meanwhile, Hamas has rejected the two fundamental conditions – disarmament and exile – prompting UAE and Saudi leaders to appeal to Trump for pressure on Hamas' patron, Qatar, to moderate the organization's leadership position toward finding a resolution formula. The presumed elimination of Mohammed Sinwar in Khan Younis, if confirmed, should assist this persuasion effort.
The Americans are conducting direct talks with Hamas despite Israeli objections, though these communications might produce a breakthrough. Hamas claims American officials agreed to their future participation in Palestinian leadership. Washington denied this assertion, but one American source remarked that "ultimately, Palestinians will choose their leaders" – a concerning statement considering the 2006 election results when Hamas defeated Fatah.
A critical juncture awaits. Gulf states and the US recognize Netanyahu's internal cabinet challenges and offer the significant future incentive – normalization with additional countries led by Saudi Arabia, which would signal the way, followed by Syria, Lebanon, and other Arab and Muslim nations. "This is the move that will lead to the Nobel," the diplomatic source noted. However, this process depends on Palestinian issue progress.
Saudi Arabia has toughened its position regarding normalization with Israel and it is now demanding a framework of time-limited talks concluding with Palestinian statehood. Various interpretations exist here too, particularly regarding the "state" definition and its establishment process, which according to one version would progress gradually, advancing alongside Palestinian Authority reforms.
Within the American administration, some advocate the "Trump Plan" from 2020, which proposes establishing a Palestinian state through gradual implementation on 70 % of West Bank territory while recognizing Israeli sovereignty over an additional 30%. This approach aims to entice the Israeli right with the sovereignty recognition. The right was divided previously – within the Yesha Council, some welcomed while others opposed it before the plan was ultimately shelved.
The Americans are conducting direct talks with Hamas despite Israeli objections, though these communications might produce a breakthrough. Hamas claims American officials agreed to their future participation in Palestinian leadership. Washington denied this assertion, but one American source remarked that "ultimately, Palestinians will choose their leaders" – a concerning statement considering the 2006 election results when Hamas defeated Fatah.
Saudi Arabia and most Arab nations reject this approach, adhering instead to the 2002 "Saudi Plan" for a Palestinian state within 1967 borders with mutually agreed boundary adjustments – in exchange for complete normalization. Nevertheless, the Trump administration appears determined to implement the comprehensive arrangement including extensive economic components, applying its full influence. Following recent actions taken without Israeli participation or contrary to Israeli requests, Trump might again attempt to impose an arrangement after consultation and coordination efforts.
Video: Trump being welcomed in Qatar on May 14, 2025 / Credit: Reuters
For Netanyahu, this represents a fundamental crossroads. Should he embrace such an arrangement, he would likely lose his hawkish right-wing support base and trigger elections, though he would receive backing from opposition elements at least until elections occur.
He might reasonably respond only to the first stage while attempting to separate the Gaza issue from the broader initiative. Former National Security Council head Meir Ben-Shabbat, a Netanyahu confidant, articulated this well, saying, "Israel must rely solely on itself and avoid entering processes difficult to exit. Peace agreements and Saudi normalization represent extremely important objectives for Israel, but not at any cost. Israel must achieve this from a position of strength, after eliminating the Gaza threat, resolving civilian nuclear issues, and maintaining cautious policy regarding Palestinian matters."
