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How Israel won the Indian-Pakistani war, and why it matters

While Pakistan deployed its Israeli-based "Chinese Lavi," India deployed a diverse arsenal of Israeli systems, including the Barak 8 system and the HAROP drones.

by  Aharon Lapidot
Published on  05-25-2025 11:47
Last modified: 05-25-2025 16:24
dassault, Pakistani Air Force

An Indian Dassault Rafale plane and a Chinese J-10 from Pakistan | Photo: dassault, Pakistani Air Force

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The fierce aerial confrontation between India and Pakistan in May 2025, designated the "Operation Sindoor" by the former revealed a sophisticated landscape of regional power dynamics, cutting-edge military technologies, and intense propaganda warfare that has fundamentally altered perspectives on contemporary air combat. This engagement encompassed dogfights, missile strikes, widespread deployment of unmanned aerial vehicles, and electronic warfare capabilities, while highlighting critical questions about Chinese versus Western weapons system effectiveness and Israel's complex role as a dual-purpose technology and arms provider.

For the first time in combat operations, Pakistan fielded Chinese J-10C fighter jets, representing the most advanced iteration of the aircraft nicknamed the "Chinese Lavi." The J-10 represents a Chinese fourth-generation multirole fighter developed by Chengdu Aerospace Corporation for the People's Liberation Army Air Force, serving as the cornerstone of Chinese aerial capabilities since the early 2000s.

Despite categorical denials from both Israeli and Chinese officials, the J-10 has long been linked to the defunct Israeli Lavi fighter program, terminated in 1987. Throughout the 1990s, intelligence reports documented technological collaboration between Israel and China, reportedly involving former Lavi project engineers providing technical assistance, transfer of aeronautical engineering expertise and avionics technology to Chinese manufacturers during their transition from aircraft replication to indigenous design capabilities. Both aircraft share remarkably similar aerodynamic characteristics including forward canard configurations, comparable fuselage architecture, and equivalent thrust-to-weight specifications.

Intelligence assessments from Western sources, including CIA analyses and the respected defense publication Jane's Defence, concluded during the 1990s that the J-10 "may extensively incorporate Lavi-derived technologies." Chinese J-10 aircraft demonstrated remarkable effectiveness against Indian Air Force platforms, with these fighters reportedly responsible for eliminating multiple Indian aircraft including French-manufactured Rafale jets, Russian-built Sukhoi SU-30MKI interceptors, and MiG-29 fighters. Pakistan simultaneously employed sophisticated Chinese air defense networks including HQ-9 surface-to-air missile systems that successfully engaged Indian aircraft operating at medium and high altitudes.

Pakistan became the inaugural international operator of the J-10C following its 2021 procurement decision, with aircraft entering operational service between 2022 and 2023. For Pakistani air commanders, the J-10C addresses India's qualitative aerial edge gained through Rafale acquisitions while countering the quantitative superiority of Indian Air Force operations, which maintains approximately double Pakistan's aircraft inventory. The J-10C combines advanced capabilities with cost-effectiveness, featuring PL-15 medium-to-extended-range air-to-air missiles capable of engaging Indian aircraft beyond visual range.

People carrying India's national flag stand near a banner portraying Air Force Wing Commander Vyomika Singh (L) and Army Colonel Sofiya Qureshi as they take part in Tiranga Yatra in Varanasi on May 24, 2025 (AFP / Niharika Kulkarni) AFP

Confronting Pakistan's hybrid Chinese-American weapons portfolio, which incorporates US-supplied F-16 multirole fighters, India deployed its premier Rafale aircraft supported by defensive systems including Russian S-400 long-range surface-to-air missiles and domestically developed Akashteer integrated air defense networks, providing enhanced airspace monitoring and control capabilities. Despite these preparations, Indian forces encountered sustained drone and precision-guided munition attacks from Pakistani forces employing Turkish Bayraktar unmanned combat aerial vehicles and sophisticated electronic warfare countermeasures.

Throughout the engagement, Pakistani military officials claimed responsibility for destroying five Indian combat aircraft, including three Rafale fighters. Beyond these claimed aerial victories, the global aviation community expressed astonishment at witnessing large-scale multi-aircraft engagements resembling classical dogfighting scenarios previously considered obsolete. The most recent significant air-to-air combat operations occurred over four decades ago, precisely 43 years earlier, during Operation Peace for Galilee, where Israeli Air Force pilots achieved a decisive 89-to-zero victory ratio against Syrian Air Force opposition. Similar aerial engagements occurred during the Iran-Iraq conflict throughout the 1980s and limited encounters during the Azerbaijan-Armenia hostilities in the 1990s. Traditional air combat scenarios materialized during the Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict (1998–2000) featuring Soviet-era aircraft including Eritrean MiG-29 fighters opposing Ethiopian Sukhoi Su-27 interceptors.

A Pakistan Ranger stands guard at the Kartarpur Sahib Corridor complex, which runs along the India-Pakistan border in Kartarpur, on May 22, 2025 (AFP / Arif Ali)

The preceding air-to-air combat encounter – preceding the current confrontation – occurred between Indian and Pakistani forces in February 2019. An Indian MiG-21 pilot was shot down and subsequently captured within Pakistani territory. Pakistani officials claimed additional F-16 aircraft destruction, though Indian authorities disputed these assertions. Such aerial combat scenarios have become increasingly uncommon in contemporary warfare, particularly between nations operating modern air forces, as current conflicts typically rely on standoff missile systems, unmanned platforms, and integrated air defense networks. Consequently, manned aircraft-versus-aircraft engagements have virtually vanished from modern battlefields. Whether the India-Pakistan confrontation signals their return remains a compelling strategic question. Several experienced fighter pilots within our air force community would welcome the revival of air combat artistry, long considered the ultimate expression of military aviation prowess.

Returning to current developments, Indian officials declined to authenticate Pakistani shoot-down claims while questioning their accuracy and verification. The bilateral conflict featured intensive information warfare campaigns as both governments attempted to shape domestic and international narratives through disinformation campaigns and selective intelligence disclosure.

From an Israeli strategic perspective, an unprecedented situation emerged involving Israeli-developed or allegedly Israeli-influenced weapons systems operating on opposing sides. Countering the "Chinese Lavi," Indian forces deployed diverse Israeli-supplied capabilities including the Barak 8 surface-to-air missile system – a collaborative Israeli-Indian development program. While extensively deployed throughout Indian military services, foreign intelligence sources suggest Pakistan acquired modified versions through third-party channels. Barak 8 collaborative development commenced between 2006 and 2009, with initial naval systems delivered to Indian Navy operations in 2016 and terrestrial variants provided to Indian Air Force units in 2017. Barak 8 technology has become integral to India's layered air defense architecture, currently deployed across naval vessels, ground-based installations, and under evaluation for airborne integration.

The HAROP loitering munition system – professionally classified as a "kamikaze" attack drone manufactured by Israel Aerospace Industries – enabled Indian forces to conduct precision strikes against designated Pakistani installations.

Police personnel stand in front of a banner portraying India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi during Tiranga Yatra in Varanasi on May 24, 2025 (AFP / Niharika Kulkarni)

Pakistani forces countered with Turkish-supplied systems including Bayraktar TB2 armed unmanned aerial vehicles used against Indian positions, incorporating sophisticated tactical approaches such as coordinating drone flights with civilian aircraft to complicate interception procedures, alongside KORAL electronic warfare platforms that enabled Pakistani operators to disrupt Indian radar and communications networks throughout the engagement.

A significant geopolitical development with potential regional and global implications involves how this latest India-Pakistan confrontation demonstrates shifting regional power equilibrium, featuring expanded Chinese and Turkish influence against declining traditional Western and Russian arms supplier dominance. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Turkey, pursuing regional and potentially global power projection ambitions, has intensified efforts to establish strategic presence throughout South Asia, with this conflict providing valuable expansion opportunities. Despite substantial Indian investments in advanced Western military systems, the confrontation exposed coordination deficiencies and inadequate responses to emerging threats including unmanned systems and electronic warfare capabilities.

Enhanced Turkish involvement establishes an additional competitive dimension against Israeli regional engagement, primarily manifested through advanced systems provision to Indian forces. Israel maintains its central regional security role, though current circumstances underscore requirements for enhanced oversight regarding sensitive technology proliferation. Future developments indicate continued regional arms competition emphasizing cyber warfare capabilities, electronic countermeasures, and advanced unmanned systems development as competing powers pursue technological and strategic advantages.

Tags: aerial conflictChinese military technologyIndiaIsraeli Lavi projectJ-10C fighterMay 2025PakistanSindor Conflict

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