Operation Rising Lion succeeded in catching the ayatollah regime far from maximum readiness for comprehensive confrontation. Its proxy organizations – Hamas, Hezbollah and Shiite militias in Syria – which were supposed to constitute a primary response line in case of an Israeli attack on Iran, have been worn down in the last year and a half almost to the point of being completely removed from the game. The nature of the Israeli attack and the decapitation of Iranian force through the elimination of its senior officials surprised the authorities in the country, and the initial response appeared confused and directionless.
Iran has labored for decades to build weapons that would enable it to strike Israel, located more than 621 miles from the country's western border. During the rounds of attacks with Iran since October 7, Iran used for the first time some of these means, including advanced missiles it developed only in recent years. In Tehran they announced today that Iran intends to use the "Kheibar" ballistic missile, with a range of 1,243 miles with a MaRV (Maneuverable Reentry Vehicle), which can evade interception and strike targets with accuracy of meters.
Iran's ballistic missile arsenal is large, diverse and confusing. Experts estimated in 2022 that Iran holds 3,000 ballistic missiles of all types and all ranges. Of these, about 2,000 missiles, according to estimates, have sufficient range to reach Israel. Among them is the Shahab-3 family, which includes the Emad missile, with a range of 1,243 miles and upgraded accuracy. Also the Khorramshahr, a ballistic missile with a large warhead of almost two tons. Many of the other missiles belong to older models, easier to intercept and much less accurate.
Iran also holds a fleet of cruise missiles, the fruit of years of development and implementation of "reverse engineering" of foreign technology that fell into Iranian hands. The Hoveyzeh cruise missile with a range of 808 miles can reach certain points in Israeli territory but its capability is limited and it is relatively easy to intercept.
The Soumar missile unveiled in 2015 has a range of 1,243 to 1,864 miles and can be launched from vessels and can even theoretically carry a nuclear warhead. The Paveh too, a cruise missile with a range of 994 miles, can easily reach Israeli territory and was successfully launched by Shiite militias in Iraq toward Israeli territory. The disadvantage in using cruise missiles is that they can be intercepted relatively easily compared to ballistic missiles whose interception is difficult and requires special systems like the Israeli Arrow and the American THAAD.
Unmanned threat
Iran's fleet of drones and unmanned aerial vehicles has become renowned with dozens of models for different purposes that have made Iran an international power of unmanned aircraft, which it exports to Russia and its satellites throughout the Middle East.
Tehran holds several models with sufficient range to reach Israel when launched from Iranian territory. The most familiar among them is the Shahed 136, with its triangular body structure and range of hundreds of miles. The model has become one of Russia's greatest threats to Ukraine, because it is simple to manufacture and easy to operate in swarms of hundreds of units.
Iran struggled to replicate Russian success with the Shahed 136, apparently due to the fact that Israeli air defense is much better than what the Ukrainians have. Iran also has jet suicide drones, characterized by greater speed, increased maneuverability and ability to carry and launch missiles, not just suicide on target. However, these tools, especially models that can reach Israeli territory, are relatively few, relatively expensive to manufacture, and when used against Israel they did not excel in survival against the air defense array.
Beyond the detailed means, various additional options exist for Iran to harm Israel, although they are less significant. The Iranian Air Force holds hundreds of fighter jets that theoretically can attack targets in Israeli territory, or launch cruise missiles that would strike with great accuracy.
A bold operation by the Iranian Air Force, especially if operating from a base in nearby Iraq, could provide some surprise. But against Israel's air superiority it is difficult to imagine such an operation, especially considering that few Iranian Air Force aircraft that took off during Operation Rising Lion, according to reports from live Israeli air broadcasts, fled the battle zone instead of confronting Israeli Air Force aircraft. Iran will not be able to provide its aircraft protection in hostile skies, nor refuel them in the air on the way to the distant target.
Another avenue of action open to Iran is terrorism in foreign countries. Israeli representations for years have been a target for the long arm of the Revolutionary Guard. It is likely that in the new situation created, Israeli representations are doing everything they can to defend themselves and prevent action by Tehran's agents.
