Hezbollah hesitates in Lebanon, Yemen's Houthis threaten escalation, Iraq faces mounting tensions, and Hamas calculates its next move. The joint Israeli-American assault on Iran has fundamentally disrupted the terror organizations comprising the "axis of resistance." These groups now await direction from the axis command structure. Put simply, all eyes turn to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for the critical decision. Yet the leader remains confined to a subterranean bunker. Foreign intelligence reports indicate that communication with him has become extraordinarily complex, conducted exclusively through handwritten messages.
The focal point of current attention centers on Iraq, where roughly 2,500 American military personnel operate from multiple installations, primarily the Ain al-Asad and Al Harir bases near Erbil. The pro-Iranian publication Al-Akhbar cited Baghdad sources confirming that several Shiite paramilitary groups within Iraq have elevated to heightened alert status.
A militia commander revealed, "All logistical and military preparations stand complete for executing precision strikes against American installations pending orders from axis leadership." He emphasized that any retaliation would prove "decisive, devastating, and likely commence within Iraqi territory." The commander insisted that Iraqi militias maintain active participation in strategic decision-making processes. Conversely, Iraqi security analysts have cautioned about the potentially disastrous consequences of direct engagement. These specialists warn that any assault could trigger comprehensive American military action across Iraq. Baghdad's government has transmitted similar warnings to militia groups, urging restraint to prevent Iraq's entanglement in broader regional warfare.
Similarly, Lebanon's administration exerts considerable pressure on Hezbollah to avoid military involvement. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have publicly stated that Lebanon cannot afford participation in regional confrontation. Hezbollah leadership deliberated for extended periods following the American strikes before ultimately issuing a lengthy condemnation without explicit commitments to military action.
Asharq Al-Awsat sources revealed that Hezbollah leadership believes premature intervention would merely provide Israel with justification for expanded Lebanese operations. The organization calculates that immediate involvement would fail to alter the conflict's trajectory meaningfully. However, a senior Iranian official indicated that Hezbollah would engage should Iran's governmental stability face serious threat.
Nabih Berri, who leads the Shiite Amal movement and serves as parliamentary speaker, represents another influential voice counseling Hezbollah against intervention. Berri recently expressed confidence that Hezbollah would abstain from regional participation. Informed sources emphasized that "no division exists between Amal and Hezbollah regarding solidarity with Iran during this conflict." They clarified that no substantive disagreements separate the organizations, and Berri's statements reflect broader consensus rather than personal opinion.
Within this context, Hezbollah parliamentary representative Hussein Jishi explained this week, "Hezbollah maintains non-neutral status, and the resistance movement will determine how to manifest its position. Hezbollah need not necessarily adopt military postures. Iran possesses adequate self-defense capabilities."
The Houthis announced they are "awaiting Iran's determination." Concurrently, Yemen's Houthis (Ansar Allah) have reiterated previous threats targeting American vessels in Red Sea waters. Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a prominent Yemeni organization official, stated, "Coordination continues with resistance axis partners regarding responses to American aggression, while we await Iran's guidance on response timing."
This constitutes a direct threat to breach the existing American ceasefire arrangement. Agreement violations could restart American coalition operations throughout Yemen. Approximately ten days ago, Israel conducted independent strikes in Sanaa. During that assassination operation, Chief of Staff Mohammed al-Rhamari sustained injuries, though his current condition remains unclear.
Given these circumstances, Arab observers questioned the apparent reduction in Yemeni rocket attacks. Abd al-Thur, an organizational commander, clarified that launches occur exclusively through coordination with the Iranian axis joint command structure. The Houthi leader informed Al-Quds Al-Arabi that "no operational reduction affects Yemen's activities, though these activities manifest only when they meaningfully impact Israel.
"Additionally, Iranian operations maintain high intensity across the complete regional scope. Yemen's contributions will emerge when they achieve significant effect." According to his assessment, "Yemen will maintain its surveillance responsibilities throughout Red Sea maritime traffic, monitoring American and other movements while maintaining readiness to engage any suspicious targets."
Simultaneously, operations against Hamas and additional Gaza-based terror organizations continue. Recent days witnessed Israeli forces eliminating operatives in Jabaliya within the northern sector, plus operations in Rafah and Khan Yunis. Hamas leadership maintains established positions regarding hostage negotiations while closely monitoring Iranian developments. The organization's supporters anticipate that Iranian axis responses will escalate regional conflict sufficiently to relieve pressure on Gaza operations.
