Iran emerged battered and humiliated from what is being referred to in Tehran as the "12-Day War," having suffered a blow that included the elimination of many senior security officials, leading nuclear scientists, and strikes on nuclear facilities, military and intelligence centers, symbols of power and sites of domestic repression. Still, Tehran feels it scored an achievement in the damage its missiles inflicted on Israel and in its ability to maintain operational continuity during the war.
According to the Iranian narrative, its primary success was in preserving the Islamic regime, based on the assumption that toppling it was Israel's real aim in launching the war.
Two central themes have dominated Iranian media discourse since the war ended. The first concerns the resumption of nuclear negotiations with the US. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is under fire from conservative and ultra-conservative circles for wanting to resume talks, on condition the US guarantees Iran will not be attacked again, and for the implied trust he still places in President Donald Trump.
A matter of hours
The second theme involves whether Iran should respond with force. While some voices argue that Tehran's success in the war negates the need to strike Israel, the conservative-radical daily Vatan-e Emrooz reported on Sunday that top Iranian political and security officials are "intensifying discussions" over launching a pre-emptive strike against Israel.
The paper explained that this option is being considered in response to recent threats by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz, who warned of Israeli enforcement measures should Iran resume efforts to develop nuclear weapons or expand its ballistic missile production. Coupled with reports of US arms shipments to Israel since the end of the war, Vatan-e Emrooz concluded another Israeli strike is likely. It therefore called on Iran's regime to prepare to launch a pre-emptive attack "a day, a few hours, or even just one hour before the Zionist assault on Iran," if its security chiefs determine such a strike is imminent.
To prepare Iranian public opinion for such a move, the paper suggested the regime should frame it as a way to finally end the cycle of war and attacks on Iran, while using the threat to create long-term deterrence.
Meanwhile, signs of Iranian anxiety are increasing - both due to the damage suffered in the war and new threats from France, Britain and Germany to reinstate the UN Security Council's snapback sanctions mechanism against Iran in mid-October 2025. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told French media that Tehran would view a snapback as equivalent to a military attack.
In a related development, Mehdi Mohammadi, a strategic adviser to Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and a former nuclear negotiator, posted an image on Instagram depicting a nuclear attack on Israel. After it drew widespread attention and criticism, Mohammadi deleted the post, explaining it was uploaded by his social media administrator, though he personally believed a nuclear weapon would enhance Iran's deterrent capability.
The fine print in Tehran's ceasefire declaration
Ultimately, Israel and Iran are entering a new phase in their strategic confrontation. Israel has demonstrated its determination to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and its advanced capabilities to enforce that red line. Iran, on the other hand, is suspicious, vengeful, and alert - an impression reinforced by statements from its senior officials. After the war ended, Iran's foreign minister clarified that Tehran had not agreed to a ceasefire, but merely to halt attacks on Israel if Israel stopped its own.
This context increases the likelihood of a miscalculation by Iran, potentially triggering a sudden missile strike on Israel.
Israel's primary challenge in this next stage will be to combine intelligence vigilance with strategic coordination with the US, in order to thwart any Iranian attempt to obtain nuclear weapons and prevent a misstep that could reignite the war in one form or another. At the same time, Israel must work toward as accurate an assessment as possible of the damage inflicted on Iran's nuclear program, to plan its next moves accordingly.
