Despite its setback in Operation Rising Lion against Israel, Iran employs covert diplomatic and military tactics to disrupt US efforts for a new Middle East order, aiming to block a Gaza ceasefire, the key to regional transformation. Iran also undermines Israel-Syria talks and Saudi Arabia's Abraham Accords entry, according to four American and Gulf diplomatic sources speaking to Israel Hayom.
The sources report that Iran pressures Hamas to take a hardline stance in Doha ceasefire negotiations. Last Wednesday, Hamas appeared open to Israel's revised withdrawal maps. US envoy Steve Whitkoff was set to pack a suitcase so he could finalize details in Doha. However, diplomatic sources noted Hamas suddenly rejected the maps and reopened agreed issues, a shift attributed to Iranian influence.
Behind the collapse of negotiations in Doha
An Israeli source told Israel Hayom that Qatari mediators, who had just hours before were all smiles, reported Hamas' new demands without clarification. Hamas insisted on Israel's immediate retreat to pre-March conflict lines and the international border by the ceasefire's end. This stunned all parties, likely thwarting a ceasefire declaration by President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington, aligning with Iran's goals.
Gulf sources revealed that Tehran, led by Revolutionary Guards chief Ismail Qaani, held dozens of urgent calls with Hamas leaders Zahar Jabarin and Nizar Awadallah. Khalil al-Hayya, managing the talks and aligned with Qatar, supported a ceasefire due to Hamas' military wing's heavy losses and need for recovery. Iranian pressure, however, led Hamas to reject the compromise, fostering pessimism as Israel prepares a new offer.
For post-war Iran, preventing Israel's diplomatic victories and minimizing losses are paramount. Blocking Saudi Arabia's Abraham Accords entry, normalization, and security deals with Syria and Lebanon aims to keep Israel in prolonged conflict and enable Iran's allies to regroup.
Iran threatens Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (also known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani) with renewed civil war, inciting terrorist groups and ethnic factions to fight. Iranian actions are tied to hostile militias nearing the Israel border buffer zone and clashes with the Druze in Sweida and elsewhere.
When will the path to normalization resume?
Israel and the US observe Iran's efforts to arm Revolutionary Guards-linked militias. Similar attempts in Lebanon aim to bolster Hezbollah. Unlike before, Syrian and Lebanese governments now resist these efforts, achieving partial success. Saudi Arabia's complex stance is evident from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's recent Riyadh visit. Saudi Arabia seeks to protect its oil facilities from Iranian attacks while pursuing US and Israeli diplomatic and economic agreements.
Israel Hayom reported last week that Saudi air forces intercepted Iranian drones targeting Israel over Iraq and Jordan during the war. Saudi Arabia's non-denial underscores its role in the US-led regional coalition.
The key question is when normalization will resume, with Iran working to delay it. The Gaza war is the primary barrier. Hamas' October 7 attack halted advanced Israel-Saudi normalization talks, planned in economic and diplomatic stages, including Israeli visa access and an economic office in Jeddah. Israel was to resume Palestinian talks and take further steps.
A month before the attack, an Israeli business delegation visited Saudi Arabia, where Dr. Nirit Ofir spoke at a major conference. The war disrupted everything, freezing talks, though minimal Israel-Saudi contacts persisted. Israel's alignment with the US in the war demonstrated its value to Saudi Arabia.
Trump's role in the conflict is notable. In 2019, he refrained from harshly responding to Iran's Houthi attack on Saudi oil facilities. Israel's ability to engage US power restored deterrence against Iran. Saudi Arabia remains in a holding pattern, preparing for a potential breakthrough.
Gaza remains the central obstacle
Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Jordan, Nayef bin Bandar Al Sudairi, appointed to the Palestinian Authority in 2023 to address Palestinian concerns over Israel-Saudi rapprochement, concluded his term. Ran Ichay, a scholar from JCAP, noted Saudi Arabia's decision not to appoint a replacement to avoid straining Israel ties. However, Saudi Arabia will not pursue normalization with Israel, as heavier issues, like the indirect war with Iran's proxies threatening Saudi Arabia, take priority. With normalization talks frozen, Palestinian Authority alignment is less significant.
Gaza remains the primary obstacle, and Iran, according to diplomatic sources, has delayed the ceasefire and the war's end. Arab sources report progress in the last day, with Israel's new withdrawal maps creating a productive atmosphere. Hamas now accepts US assurances for a ceasefire beyond 60 days. Israel has not commented.
Despite Prime Minister Netanyahu's criticism of Hamas' conduct last Saturday, the Israeli delegation stayed in Doha. An Israeli source stated at the talks' start that the goal is to free half the hostages, aligning with a war objective. The source emphasized that the ultimate goals – freeing all hostages, demilitarizing Gaza, and ousting Hamas – remain. The source predicted renewed fighting after 60 days due to Hamas' refusal. Israel and the US are fully aligned.
