The war plan approved by the Diplomatic-Security Cabinet last week has not yet moved to practical implementation, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's announcement that he would demand the chief of staff shorten combat timeframes has not materialized, given the absence of security discussions on the matter since last Thursday.
In fact, senior officials testify that currently the preparation time announced by Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir for continuing the war in Gaza and conquering Hamas' remaining strongholds still stands at two months, and only after them will the plan approved by the cabinet be implemented – Gaza first, and then the central camps.
The main concern about the plan finally approved by the Cabinet stems from those two months of waiting for implementation. While some in the military see this as a final opportunity to advance a deal, others warn that without actions in the field, Hamas will not return to the negotiating room.
"Applying pressure in the remaining 25% of the territory is what will accelerate the return of the hostages," Lt. Col. (ret.) Yaron Buskila told Israel Hayom. According to him, claims about harming hostages during combat are also unfounded, as Hamas has an interest in preserving the hostages' lives and using them to create an end to the war or ceasefire.
The price of waiting
However, choosing the middle path between the chief of staff's proposal and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's demand for comprehensive action in Gaza carries significant risks that can be called the time problem. The two months of preparation required for rotating forces in the Strip and handling IDF equipment will also serve Hamas to prepare and strengthen for the next campaign.
Buskila said that between the options of immediate action and one that would happen only after the holidays, it would have been preferable to enter the campaign now when Hamas is tired and weak. The very entry into action, he estimates, would have already brought about a partial deal for returning hostages under conditions Israel agreed to, while holding central corridors in the Strip.
Another concern in the time dimension stems from political pressure applied on Israel and Hamas' orchestrated psychological attacks that will deter Israel from acting further. In fact, Israel's time window is shrinking – a warning on this matter was even sent by Netanyahu associate Ron Dermer during the last Diplomatic-Security Cabinet meeting, and Smotrich also expressed concern about the moment when Donald Trump will demand Israel stop the war machine.
In a month, the UN General Assembly annual world leaders summit will also take place. This is where unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state will emerge, which will certainly entrench Hamas in its position. The hunger campaign that has achieved stunning success in launching the media tsunami against Israel with Qatari funding, warns Buskila, is only one of many that Hamas will implement the moment it feels Israel is closing in on it again.
"Next time it will be an epidemic campaign funded by Qatar, and it's completely clear today what its effect on the war will be," Buskila warns about the consequences of postponing entry into Gaza. "We should have exploited the momentum now without letting Hamas recover, and maybe we would have already succeeded in freeing another 8-10 hostages," he estimates.
Among all the options between the chief of staff's raid plan that would impose more long months of combat in the Strip and the conquest plan that will begin in two months, the cabinet made an informed decision to apply greater pressure on Hamas. But the political hourglass that turned over on the State of Israel may collide with the extended timeline the chief of staff imposed on the plan approved by the cabinet – two months of preparation, two months of action in Gaza and additional months of action in the central camps.
On paper the plan appears feasible, in practice the unpredictable US president could leave all the plans in the drawer in an instant a month from now. This fear of forced war termination without hostages and without decisive victory should keep both the chief of staff's office and the prime minister's office awake at night.
