This pattern has repeated itself time and again in US-Israel relations, or more precisely, between the Trump and Netanyahu offices, since the unconventional president returned to the White House earlier this year.
It happened with the tariff issue, at the first Trump-Netanyahu meeting, on Iran, and again last week with Trump's plan presentation and its current follow-up.
On the one hand, Trump draws Israel and Netanyahu close. He says all the right things that self-righteous Western leaders hesitate to say, about terrorism, about October 7, and about American support for Israel, and he acts on them, from the strike on Iran to the clauses in his plan for ending the war in Gaza.
On the other hand, he exacts a price from Israel in line with his own interests. From the tariff deal that was problematic for Israel, to his directive to halt the last strike on Iran, the apology to Qatar, and now, his framing of Hamas's "yes, but…" response as a global message of peace, alongside an order to stop the attacks. Reporters and analysts have been left baffled by what appear to be sharp and confusing reversals.
But there's likely method in the madness. Trump enjoys genuine and broad support in Israel, and he has demonstrated that through concrete actions, from moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem and withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal during his previous term, to restoring weapons shipments, giving Israel unprecedented diplomatic backing during the war, striking Iran, and emphasizing his commitment to freeing the hostages in his new plan.
At the same time, and sometimes in tension with those moves, he also has his own vision—and his desire to become a global peacemaker. War, after all, is bad for business, and the Middle East needs his mega-deal. If a Nobel Peace Prize comes with it, all the better. As an aside, nothing would be more entertaining than Trump giving his Nobel acceptance speech in Oslo before a hall of Europeans who despise him—and whom he despises in return.
He wants to make both America and himself great again, economically and technologically through global leadership in AI and energy, strategically in the rivalry with China, and politically by resolving long-standing conflicts.
He has done so in several regional disputes and now wants to tackle two more: the long-running Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war. Since Russian President Vladimir Putin is far stronger than Hamas, Trump's focus remains here. In his diplomatic dance with Israel, he has laid out a plan whose clauses overwhelmingly favor Israel, and what doesn't can still be stomached. All this while setting a tough ultimatum for Hamas.
When the expected reply arrives, because Hamas, weakened and isolated, cannot outright refuse yet stubbornly adds conditions, Trump rushes to box Israel in, thrilled like a child by the response, and instructs it to halt its Gaza offensive.
Behind the White House's swift and overly enthusiastic statement lies Trump's eagerness to seize the narrow window of opportunity he believes could lead to ending the war under the terms he himself set out.
He is not giving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu time to push back, simply declaring: give Hamas a chance. In reality, he's telling Qatar and Turkey to keep their word to him, to bring Hamas to the table for ending the war, freeing the hostages, and exiting the stage in Gaza.
Trump's envoys, Steven Witkoff on the first phase of hostage release and ceasefire, and Jared Kushner on the second, concerning Gaza's reconstruction, plan to press hard and prevent talks from stalling, or so they promise.
The goal is to see the hostage releases begin as early as this week, timed, not coincidentally, with the Nobel announcement, to lock Hamas into the process and prevent it from slipping away. Washington believes that once the process begins, even if it hits bumps along the way, it will ultimately end the war and dismantle Hamas.
More importantly, it would kick-start broader Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and pave the way for a regional mega-deal, expanding the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations with several additional Arab and Muslim states, and bringing in vast investments for development, in classic Trump style.
And with all that, despite the surprises, Israel still believes its close ties with the White House will prevent it from being forced into moves it cannot accept. As in the past, the conviction in Jerusalem remains that when it counts, Trump will stand by Israel and deliver the desired result: ending the war, removing Hamas's threat from Gaza, and securing the hostages' release.
When Trump's plan was first announced, I wrote that Hamas would not be able to stand in the way of the American president's mega-deal. It seems that no one can, not even Israel.
