Israeli security officials estimate Hamas intends to release all 20 living hostages at once, although preparations are underway for various scenarios.
Based on current assessments, the Israeli hostages are held in at least three separate locations across the Gaza Strip, and uncertainty persists over whether Hamas will gather them for a unified release or transfer them to the Red Cross at multiple sites.
Security sources indicate Hamas has not yet transmitted to Israel the names of the deceased captives it intends to return. Simultaneously, Israeli security officials are tracking closely the enforcement mechanism American negotiators are presently formulating. On Friday, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner addressed the matter with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and on Saturday the subject arose during discussions between the two senior American envoys and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir.
Israel's goal is for the developing mechanism to mirror the framework established in Lebanon, though substantial differences between the two theaters may hinder this objective.
Who becomes the enforcer?
First, Lebanon functions as a sovereign state, allowing Israeli grievances relayed through the Americans to reach the Lebanese government and Lebanese Armed Forces, which bear enforcement responsibility. In Gaza, however, no governing authority exists apart from Hamas, leaving unclear whether and how Israeli complaints will be addressed and enforced.
Second, Israel successfully imposed an on-the-ground enforcement doctrine in Lebanon against every breach – targeting not merely immediate dangers but also weapons accumulation. In Gaza, Israel may lack this capability given the commitments it made in the agreement, particularly as the deployment of foreign personnel from nations including the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Turkey and others may restrict Israeli actions.
In the interim, until tomorrow morning, Israeli Air Force operational guidelines remain exceptionally stringent, as avoiding any risk to the hostage release remains paramount throughout Israel.
Following their release and return to Israel, the nation will transition into a phase of establishing security arrangements with Hamas. Israel's fundamental priority is Gaza demilitarization and operations against any weapons buildup, regardless of scale. An additional unresolved matter will inevitably be determining Gaza's future governance.
