Israel's population growth rate in 2025 was the lowest since the country's establishment, according to a new analysis by the Taub Center for Social Policy Studies.
The data show that the population increased by only 0.9%, compared with a rate of at least 1.5% a year recorded in almost every year since 1950. The study also points to negative migration figures, a decline in fertility and projections of a rising mortality rate through 2040.
The Taub Center attributes the slowdown to a combination of factors: an increase in the number of deaths, a sustained decline in fertility rates and a growing gap between the number of Israelis leaving the country and those immigrating to it. The number of departures exceeded arrivals by 26,000. In 2026, the trend is expected to continue, with the gap projected to widen to about 37,000 people.
Life expectancy in Israel stood at 83.7 years in 2023. Among OECD countries, only Switzerland, Japan and Spain recorded higher figures. Life expectancy in Israel was 5.3 years higher than in the US and 2.7 years higher than in the UK.
Despite gains in life expectancy in recent years, which are expected to continue albeit at a slower pace than in the second half of the 20th century, the absolute number of deaths is rising, from about 46,000 in 2018 to roughly 51,000 in 2024. Annual deaths are projected to increase by about 77% by 2040, including a 71% rise among the Jewish population and a 111% increase among the Arab population.
Decline in natural population growth
Over the past decade, the annual number of births in Israel has remained stable. The data indicate that this overall stability since 2016 persists despite significant declines in fertility rates across almost all population groups. In other words, even though the number of couples of childbearing age has grown, the total number of births has remained largely unchanged.
Based on fertility patterns among Jewish women in their twenties, the completed fertility rate of secular and traditional non-religious women is expected to approach 1.7 children per woman by the late 2030s, slightly higher than current levels in Northern Europe and North America.
Among religious women, including traditional women with a religious affiliation, fertility is projected to decline to about 2.3 children per woman. Among ultra-Orthodox women, it is expected to fall to 4.3 children per woman. Similar trends are anticipated in Arab society, where fertility is projected to decline to 2.7 children per woman among religious women and to 2.0 among non-religious women.
Between 2016 and 2025, Israel's annual natural population growth rate fell from 1.6% to 1.3%. A particularly sharp decline was recorded among the Arab population, where the rate dropped from 2.1% to 1.6%. The main reason is the stability in birth numbers alongside a 43% increase in deaths, driven by the rapid growth of the elderly population in Arab society. Added to this is volatility in the number of Israelis emigrating abroad.
Professor Alex Weinreb, director of research and head of demography at the Taub Center, addressed the findings in an interview with Israel Hayom.
"Over the years, Israel benefited from positive migration almost every year and gained enormously from immigrants," he said. "People will continue to come to Israel as long as it promises an attractive way of life, socially and economically. In recent years, tensions stemming from social divisions, a war carried largely on the shoulders of a small, educated and productive minority, and a cost of living far above the average in wealthy countries have created strong incentives for Israelis to leave, at least temporarily. If the government is serious about bringing them back, and about reducing the phenomenon among young people who are still here, it needs to address these underlying drivers."
Asked whether those leaving are the people who "carry the country on their shoulders", such as doctors, high-tech professionals, researchers and scientists, Weinreb said there is no direct data on the characteristics of those emigrating or immigrating.
"We do touch on this indirectly," he said. "The destinations of Israelis leaving have shifted somewhat, from North America to Europe and Asia. That points to a different motivation: a better quality of life, and somewhat less emphasis on pure economic maximization."
On the role of the current government, Weinreb said it has "very little impact on mortality, more on fertility, through the effect of the cost of living and subsidies to the ultra-Orthodox sector that enable higher fertility rates, and a great deal of influence on migration. That is an area where much more could be done to reduce the incentives for people to leave."
Bringing one million Jews to the State of Israel
On the eve of Rosh Hashanah, Israel Hayom launched the "11th Million," a Zionist call to turn a vision into reality: the immigration of one million Jews to the State of Israel over the next decade.
At the heart of the initiative is a bold national effort that goes beyond a value statement and sets a strategic goal. Mass aliyah is not only a personal solution for Jews currently living under a growing threat of antisemitism in communities such as Australia, Britain, Canada, France and Russia. It is also a historic opportunity to shape the future of the Jewish people and to build Israeli society, its security and its economy.
Our goal is twofold: to make the Israeli public aware of the magnitude of this moment, and to call on the government to mobilize behind a national plan in housing, employment, education and infrastructure that will turn the dream into reality.
The "11th Million" will not settle for slogans. Throughout the year, we will work to elevate the public and political discussion around the project through in-depth reporting, filmed journeys, special projects and concrete work plans designed to transform the vision into a cohesive national program.
This is the moment to raise the flag. The 11th Million is more than a numerical target. It is a historic decision.
