The decision not to launch a military strike on Iran was made last week by US President Donald Trump, following a round of talks with regional leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Qatar's prime minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Oman's Sultan Haitham bin Tariq, and others.
According to senior foreign diplomatic sources, intelligence assessments regarding the level of preparedness of the US military and allied forces in the region, alongside pessimistic evaluations of the likely consequences of a strike within the operational window available that day, weighed even more heavily in Trump's decision.
The sources said that in his conversation with Trump, Netanyahu presented an overview of Israel's defensive preparations, while also sharing intelligence assessments indicating that a limited strike, even if highly precise, could lead to outcomes different from those originally planned.
Other intelligence agencies in the region shared the assessment that the collapse of the Iranian regime would take time and would not occur as a direct result of an aerial attack. At the same time, they assessed that Iran's ability to respond militarily was far weaker than the bombastic rhetoric voiced by regime leaders. Despite this, the sources said Netanyahu, along with at least two other regional leaders, supports an active approach aimed at toppling the regime in the near term and has committed to providing all necessary support toward that goal.
Not If, but when
The sources assessed that the buildup of US forces in the region is intended to enable a growing range of options, including attack plans and an economic and strategic siege of Iran. In parallel, the US Treasury Department is preparing a new package of sanctions targeting the regime, with a particular focus on senior officials and companies linked to regime leaders and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
One of the sources told Israel Hayom in this context that a significant American move was not a question of if, but when. According to the source, the correct timing and the nature of the action are under constant review, in full cooperation with all friendly countries in the region.
"The president is determined to bring about the fall of the regime, which is an obstacle to any political and economic progress in the Middle East," the source said. He added that Saudi Arabia had presented a complex position, combining concern over potential Iranian attacks on nuclear facilities with a recognition of the need to significantly reduce Tehran's destructive influence over other regimes in the region.
A significant role in the decision to refrain from a strike was played by Steve Witkoff, who serves in the US State Department and is referred to by some there as "Naive Steve." Witkoff relayed to Trump a message sent via text by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, stating that there would be no executions. According to information reaching Israel from Iran, that message was false.
Witkoff also conveyed a similar commitment from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, along with assurances that gunfire in the streets would cease. An Israeli source told Israel Hayom that Witkoff's lack of experience in dealing with Iran was evident, and that the president later received intelligence indicating that assassinations inside Iran had continued despite those promises.
