Many Israelis are familiar with the story from the Book of Esther, in which Mordechai learns that two officials in the Persian king's court, Bigthan and Teresh, are plotting to assassinate him. Mordechai alerts Esther and the king, and the two conspirators are executed for their scheme.
That episode ended well, and the Persian king survived. But Iranian history is rife with cases in which sons or close associates rose up against rulers, murdered them or at least removed them from the throne through conspiracies and palace plots. Some rulers, fearing such betrayals, even killed their own sons and confidants preemptively, suspecting they might turn against them.
Today, with the Iranian regime widely seen as far weaker than in previous years and repeatedly entangled in wars that sap its strength, the likelihood of an internal conspiracy by interested parties or figures within the centers of power is increasing. These include the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the military and the political elite. For now, they appear united against what they define as the internal enemy: the public, which took to the streets in protest in an effort to topple the regime and install an alternative government. Those protests failed to endanger the regime, largely due to brutal repression and the killing of demonstrators.
That does not mean such a scenario could not unfold during, or after, another strike by the US or Israel. This leads to another key point. The public cannot and does not want to guarantee rewards, wealth or safe haven for the generals who are suppressing it. The West, however, even as it confronts the Iranian regime, is capable of offering a deal that would be hard to refuse. In recent weeks, there has been extensive reporting that many Iranian generals in the Revolutionary Guards, who are supposed to be ideologically devout and loyal to the regime, have amassed large fortunes and transferred them to the West over the years. They have bought property there, and their sons and daughters have lived abroad for many years, holding Western citizenship.
A challenge for the West
It is therefore possible to imagine a scenario in which several generals conspire against the supreme leader and his loyal inner circle, seeking to engineer his removal. Western encouragement, and even covert support, coupled with guarantees for their safety after success, could serve as a catalyst for such a move. In return, they could pledge a stance of non-hostility toward the West and Israel. This could also lead to the neutralization of the many terrorist organizations surrounding Israel, which are funded by the Iranian regime and receive weapons from it, even when the regime itself is under severe strain.
This is, admittedly, an optimistic scenario, one in which the bloodshed would be far less than in the case of a continued popular uprising and mass killing, as seen in recent weeks. Dire estimates of casualties, around 30,000 killed and roughly 360,000 wounded, could be significantly reduced. Such an outcome would only be possible if the West were to coordinate with these figures in advance and plan the coup with them without the regime's knowledge. In this way, much like the removal of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, the removal of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, could open the door to a better future for Iranians, the region and the world at large.
Until then, the dilemma remains: will President Donald Trump ultimately strike Iran, or does he have another plan?
The public cannot and does not want to promise rewards to the generals who are repressing it. The West, even as it confronts the Iranian regime, can offer a deal that is hard to refuse.
