The diplomatic poker game continues, but US President Donald Trump made one point unmistakably clear in his State of the Union address: there is very little to no chance of a deal between Washington and Tehran. Whatever his envoys may say in their talks with Iranian representatives in Geneva is unlikely to change that fundamental reality.
"I will never hesitate to confront threats to America wherever we must," Trump told hundreds of members of the House of Representatives and the Senate. Aside from Iran, is there any other country whose regime encourages its citizens to chant "Death to America"? Is there a more explicit threat to the US than such calls?
"Since they seized control of that proud nation 47 years ago, the regime and its murderous proxies have spread nothing but terrorism and death and hate. They have killed and wounded thousands of American service members," Trump added, in remarks that hardly prepare the American public for a historic reconciliation.
"They have killed at least, it looks like, 32,000 protesters in their own country… These are terrible people. They have already developed missiles that can threaten Europe and our bases overseas, and they are working on building missiles that will soon reach the US," he continued, proving his point for anyone who might still have doubted his direction.
"At this very moment, they are once again pursuing their sinister ambitions for nuclear weapons… We have not heard the magic words, 'We will never have nuclear weapons,'" said the toughest US president Iran has ever faced.
In other words, Trump made clear that he does not consider the Iranian leadership's declarations that it will not develop nuclear weapons to be credible. It would be difficult to state the matter more plainly. With such an opening stance, there is virtually no chance that the rival sides will suddenly turn into partners. The unavoidable scenario, the argument goes, is a military confrontation.
Action without a Regime alternative?
Although Israel has been on high alert for more than a month, it is far from certain that the Americans have completed their military preparations. The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford has not yet arrived, as far as is known. F-22 fighter jets landed in Israel only two days ago, as did aerial refueling planes spotted at Ben Gurion Airport. The CIA has only just begun distributing messages in Persian. Above all, there is still no known organized force that could serve as an alternative to the regime in Tehran. Is there any point in launching military action without one?
Poker player Donald Trump is, understandably, concealing his moves and plans. He may act as early as tomorrow. He may wait much longer. What is certain is that he has concentrated around Iran a military force capable of stunning the Iranian regime within hours. The imbalance is stark. For that reason, there are grounds to believe he will act and will not allow what he sees as a historic opportunity to slip from his grasp.
During his first term, Trump was awarded by some in the Jewish community the title "Cyrus the Great." By the coming Israeli Independence Day, he may yet receive the Israel Security Prize from the Jewish state.
