The selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's new Supreme Leader is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' provocative battle cry. They chose him as successor even though he has never held a single official position in his life, despite his lack of charisma and despite his limited religious authority to serve as the earthly representative of al-Mahdi, the last imam who ascended to heaven and is expected one day to return to redeem the world and Iran from its suffering. He was chosen for one reason only: to continue the fight.
For many leaders of the Revolutionary Guards who are still fighting, this ceased long ago to be an ideological war or a religious struggle between believers and infidels. It is a fight for survival. If they lose, they will be forced to reunite in heaven with their assassinated leader and, at the very least, lose the status, the billions they have pocketed and the privileges they accumulated over years at the expense of the Iranian people.
There is no dispute about the basic facts of this war. A vast majority of Iranian citizens are fed up with the rule of the ayatollahs, want lives of freedom and liberty, and cannot understand why the brutal regime has devoted decades to the illusion of destroying Israel instead of ensuring the welfare of its own people.
A war with three unknowns
The same is true in Lebanon, perhaps even more so. Lebanon's entire government, both the president and the cabinet, along with a large majority of the Lebanese public, do not want the war with Israel to continue. They do not accept the absurd claim that Israel has territorial ambitions in Lebanon, and they are convinced that Hezbollah, since its founding 44 years ago, has brought the country nothing but a chain of disasters and destruction.
Israel is now fighting simultaneously against the Iranian regime and its most dangerous terrorist proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah. But this is a war shaped by three unknowns that no one can yet predict or solve.
When will the regime collapse?
The first unknown: What is the precise Archimedean point at which the intensive strikes by the US and Israel will bring about the collapse of the regime in Tehran? When will the moment come when Revolutionary Guard members lay down their weapons, scatter in all directions and the Iranian public floods the streets to seize power and establish a free, democratic and life-seeking state?
As the war enters its second week, that moment has not yet arrived. Missile launches continue, a new leader has been chosen and official statements from the regime keep appearing as usual.
When will Hezbollah be weakened enough?
The second unknown: What is the Archimedean point at which Hezbollah will be so exhausted that the Lebanese Armed Forces will gather the courage to move against it and disarm it?
So far, that has not happened either, even though the Lebanese government has declared that the organization is operating outside the law and threatening Lebanon's sovereignty and independence, and has instructed the army to act.
The army, which includes many members of the Shiite community, still fears confronting Hezbollah. Chief of Staff Rudolph Haikal reportedly suggested in a closed government meeting that officials should "open dialogue with Hezbollah about handing over its weapons" rather than storming its positions.
The decision by Lebanon's military court last night to release Hezbollah operatives on $20 bail after they were detained at checkpoints with rocket launchers showcases the weakness of the central government.
When will Trump decide to stop?
The third unknown: What is the Archimedean point at which US President Donald Trump will decide, under pressure from domestic opponents of the war, from soaring oil prices, from dwindling weapons supplies or from other considerations, to declare that Iran has been defeated, that victory has been achieved and then withdraw the armada?
Such a scenario, which is not entirely imaginary, would leave Israel alone with three open fronts: Iran, Lebanon and Gaza, the last of which almost forgotten by now. Of the three, the Hezbollah front is the most dangerous and troubling.
Before the war began, Trump, the most Israel-friendly US president, was the one who restrained Israel both in Gaza and in Beirut. Now American involvement may also be required to help Israel finish the job in Lebanon.
"Roaring Lion" cannot end without the full and complete removal of the Hezbollah threat to residents of northern Israel and the opening of a real, not imaginary, possibility of a peace agreement with the Lebanese government and its eventual entry into the Abraham Accords.
