Since the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip went into effect, a perception has taken hold among the Israeli public that is detached from the reality on the ground: that the Strip's borders are closed, the fighting has stopped and Hamas itself is on the verge of collapse. But conversations with IDF officials, some of them senior, paint the opposite picture: Hamas is undergoing a systematic and rapid process of rebuilding its strength.
According to officials familiar with the details, the humanitarian aid corridor is one of the channels enabling Hamas to rebuild, with at least two shipments recently uncovered in which banned materials had been hidden under the guise of food and approved humanitarian equipment. Senior officials say these seizures are not isolated incidents, but part of a mechanism intended to ensure Hamas' survival and prevent its collapse.
In practice, the ceasefire has not only failed to stop Hamas, it has given the organization breathing room to deepen its renewed entrenchment and buildup. The terrorist organization in the Strip is exploiting the delay in implementing the second stage of the agreement as a "window of opportunity" to rebuild and rearm.
Not only that, but Hamas is also increasing its open presence on the ground. Its operatives move around in public, strengthen governance, man armed checkpoints and restore government infrastructure. Hamas firmly controls more than two-thirds of the territory in the Strip that is not held by the Israel Defense Forces, doing so through a combination of force, intimidation, distribution of money and the use of part of the humanitarian aid as a tool to strengthen governance.
Smuggling with containers
Since the summer of 2025, weapons and ammunition have been smuggled into the Gaza Strip by drones launched from Egyptian territory. The IDF has managed to thwart a handful of attempts, but the working assumption must be that some smuggling operations were not thwarted. According to officials familiar with the details, Hamas has also developed maritime smuggling capabilities using containers that float to the shores of southern Gaza.
But the real risk, the officials say, lies in the humanitarian aid framework, under which hundreds of trucks enter Gaza from Egypt through Israel. The trucks ostensibly contain humanitarian aid and are inspected by Israeli personnel, but the inspection is not airtight, and Hamas is exploiting the ability to prepare goods in Egypt in order to conceal banned materials and products inside the aid in a sophisticated manner.
Hamas, the officials say, is using the humanitarian aid as a lifeline in four ways. The first is smuggling weapons, ammunition and dual-use components inside shipments, including motor oil, electronic equipment and raw materials for the local production of rockets. These are inserted into boxes and hidden among legitimate goods, and no inspection mechanism can detect them with 100% certainty.
The second is economic independence in the face of the blockade. Hamas confiscates some aid shipments, sells them in the market, distributes the money to its operatives, and uses it to develop infrastructure and support the population. The third is preventing the legitimacy of alternative bodies, because the aid passes through mechanisms controlled by Hamas, thereby strengthening its status as the sole governing authority and weakening efforts to build an alternative governing mechanism. The fourth is that humanitarian aid serves as cover for intelligence activity, the smuggling of equipment and communications, and technical equipment components that provide Hamas with renewed command-and-control capabilities.
Security officials say the real risk is the failure of the agreement. As of now, the second stage of the ceasefire, which was supposedly meant ultimately to lead to the demilitarization of the Strip, has been delayed. The IDF remains in Gaza for the time being, but Hamas, as noted, is using the time to build its strength inside the Strip while also concentrating resources in other countries to identify opportunities to smuggle goods into Gaza.
Hamas is active on the ground
The assumption that closing the borders prevents Hamas from rebuilding its strength is mistaken, especially as Hamas uses unexploded IDF ordnance to assemble various weapons. Security officials say that as long as stricter inspections are not implemented to expand the security layers, Hamas will continue to grow stronger, build its force and prepare for another confrontation.
In light of all this, and given the Hamas activity identified on the ground, the top levels of the IDF are increasingly saying there will be no avoiding a return to fighting in the Gaza Strip. For now, with five divisions in Lebanon, additional forces inside Syria, the need for reinforcements in Judea and Samaria, and the Israeli Air Force's real focus on preparations for Iran, it is unclear how this can all come together.
That is why security officials believe it is now important for Israel to keep insisting on advancing the demilitarization agreement in Gaza, and not reach a situation in which the war in Iran and Lebanon exhausts the international community, and Israel itself, and diverts it from the goal of demilitarizing the Strip.
