If you see a group of people running frantically in one direction, you should probably run with them. They are fleeing something dangerous, whether a terrorist attack or an approaching natural disaster. American artist Kyle McDonald took that principle and adapted it for the digital age, turning the flight habits of the world's wealthy into an early warning system for impending disaster.
The website he founded, Apocalypse Early Warning, is based on a simple assumption: If a global catastrophe such as nuclear war is imminent, the richest people will know about it first, thanks to their information networks, and will rush to escape in their private jets to isolated islands, fortified estates or underground bunkers.
In other words, when disaster threatens, those with the means to flee are the first to do so. McDonald came up with the idea for the project against the backdrop of political tensions and the widening war with Iran, which heightened public anxiety over a possible nuclear event.
How does it work?
The website is not just another standard tracking bot. The system draws on publicly available aviation data, especially ADS-B signals, which broadcast aircraft location, speed and altitude in real time.
Scope of monitoring: The system tracks around 11,000 business jets and private aircraft worldwide, the kind of planes often used by billionaires.
Ranking method: The system compares the number of aircraft in the air at any given moment with historical norms, and ranks the official emergency level on a scale of 1 to 5.
Level 1 represents an entirely routine day. Level 5 is triggered only when there is an unusual surge, five standard deviations above the average, indicating that "something very bad is about to happen." If the index spikes, the system sends an immediate alert to subscribers by text message or email.
McDonald stressed that the system is programmed to take holidays and major events, such as the Super Bowl, into account in order to prevent false alarms. It also does not identify the owners or passengers of specific aircraft, in order to avoid exposing personal information.
The idea of inferring dramatic events from everyday data is reminiscent of the "Pentagon pizza index," according to which a sudden jump in late-night pizza orders to defense offices in Washington hints at secret military or operational activity that is about to get underway.
The phenomenon of the wealthy preparing for doomsday is not new. Writer and documentarian Douglas Rushkoff, who explored the issue in his book "Survival of the Richest," notes that most billionaires do not build bunkers from scratch, but instead upgrade existing structures into fortified, well-equipped compounds.
McDonald, who has previously created many critical projects targeting powerful surveillance mechanisms, and even had his home raided by the Secret Service about 15 years ago after installing photography software on Apple Store computers, likes to turn the camera around and use surveillance tools against the most influential people in the world.
If the early warning system ever issues a real alarm and the alert level jumps to 5, it could give ordinary people a short but critical window of time to try to prepare their own emergency plan. Still, everyone knows the rich will already be several steps ahead on the way to safe harbor.
