The IDF Home Front Command is preparing for the possibility of a third war against Iran. The assessment is that the next war will begin as a surprise, with no advance warning to the public, local authorities or hospitals, in order to surprise the Iranians for a third time.
During Operation Rising Lion, it took the Iranians 18 hours to respond from the opening strike until the first missile. In Operation Lion's Roar, it took two hours and 50 minutes from the opening strike and the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei until the first missile. This time, the Home Front Command assesses that the Iranians will try to launch missiles at the Israeli home front in a shorter time than before. As a result, this time too the entire home front will become "red" in the initial stages of the campaign, meaning a complete shutdown of the civilian sphere, including Ben-Gurion Airport and the education system.
2-3 hits a day
An analysis of data from the second Iran war, Operation Roaring Lion, shows that most of those killed by Iranian missiles, 21 in total, were members of the elderly population, including older adults who did not speak Hebrew at all. The Home Front Command does not have data on even a single person killed by Iranian cluster missiles while inside a protected space.
According to Home Front Command data, only 28% of the Iranian missiles were "regular" missiles, with warheads containing hundreds of kilograms of explosives. The rest, 72%, carried dispersing munitions, meaning cluster missiles.
Around 1,000 cluster bomblets hit the Israeli home front during the 40 days of the war, with between two and three strikes on the home front each day. The cluster bombs killed seven Israelis, none of whom, as noted, was in a protected space when hit.
According to the Home Front Command's analysis, the cluster missiles contained between 20 and 80 small bombs, with the average dispersing warhead carrying around 30 bomblets. Each bomblet contained an average of between 2 and 8 kilograms (4.4 to 17.6 pounds) of explosives, though most weighed 3 kilograms (6.6 pounds).
The Iranians fired 550 missiles, creating 25 significant destruction sites. The Home Front Command stresses that the next time, too, secrecy at the start of the war against Iran will come at the expense of protection, and therefore no advance warning will be given to the public.
The Home Front Command has completed its preliminary instructions for launches from Lebanon, and intends to give a two-minute advance warning before sirens sound for missile launches from Lebanon toward Gush Dan and Tel Aviv.
As for the threat of explosive drones from Lebanon, the Home Front Command assesses that Hezbollah built its array of fiber-optic drones as a lesson from Operation Northern Arrows, the 2024 war in Lebanon. Today, only 67% of the Israeli public has access to protection. The current assessment is that within 33 years, everyone will have protection, and efforts are constantly being made to speed up the process.
