Two leading political commentators shared the stage at the Israel Hayom Summit in New York, as Amit Segal and Dan Senor closed the event with a live podcast discussing Israel's political deadlock, possible coalition arrangements and the changing landscape of American politics and its implications for Israel.
Senor, the American commentator and host of the Call Me Back podcast, opened with a seemingly innocent question: What was happening with the negotiations to form a government in Israel?
"I feel embarrassed to have traveled 6,000 miles just to tell you I have absolutely no idea," Segal admitted. "But since we're here, let's discuss the options. There's an old Israeli joke by Ephraim Kishon that says when the moment of truth arrives, it's time to start lying. That's exactly what's happening in Israel right now."
"We effectively have four options, all of them based on a lie or a broken campaign promise," Segal continued. "The first option is to hold another election. I don't think anyone really wants that, but it could happen. The second option is a minority government supported from outside the coalition by 19 Arab MKs. It's pretty easy to remember, like Israel's wars: 48 with the Jews and 67 with the Arabs. The third option is a left-wing government with the haredim, which would have 61 seats. To me, at least, that sounds ridiculous, considering that the entire campaign of the parties advocating change was based on opposition to the ultra-Orthodox over the military conscription law. Nevertheless, mathematics trumps principles. The question is whether the minimum the haredim are prepared to accept meets the maximum the Left is willing to offer."
"The fourth option, and I'll admit I'm not being objective here, is the best one in my view: a unity government," Segal added. "I think the only stable government capable of dealing with the unique challenges in the US, Europe and, of course, the Middle East is a unity government built around Israel's two main political forces, the center-left and the Right."
"Netanyahu has run out of tricks up his sleeve"
Segal explained that Netanyahu wants to serve first in a rotation agreement so he can work with Trump during the two years remaining in the US president's term. However, he argued that Netanyahu's combative speech at the Knesset's swearing-in ceremony had damaged his prospects of forming a unity government.
"Netanyahu, at 77, has run out of tricks up his sleeve. He's used them all. He finished the election with 46 MKs, and even United Torah Judaism has officially abandoned him. He cannot form a right-wing coalition. His only hope is to wait, or pull strings, until his rivals collapse."
According to Segal, instead of alienating potential partners with a speech attacking Arab MKs, Netanyahu should have forced the opposition to choose between a minority government supported by Arab parties and a unity government.
Asked about Avigdor Lieberman's prospects of becoming prime minister, Segal replied that he had recommended betting on him on Polymarket a year earlier. "In Israel, unfortunately, kingmakers become kings. Bennett turned that idea into reality when he became prime minister with just 5% of the vote. Who's going to tell Lieberman he can't do it? Bennett?"
Segal also recalled the surprising meeting between Lieberman and MK Yaakov Asher (United Torah Judaism), which took place after years of estrangement. "Lieberman said it wasn't a negotiation. He had simply run out of Turkish coffee. I can promise you that two weeks ago, he would have run all the way to Syria to get coffee rather than knock on Yaakov Asher's door."
As for former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, Segal assessed that he favors a unity government, partly because it could pave the way for his return to the Right.
Segal then addressed tensions between Netanyahu and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir over Iran. "I think the decision to strike Iran won't be made in a room with Zamir and Netanyahu. It will be made during a phone call between Netanyahu and Trump. If Trump wants it to happen, it will happen, even if Zamir objects. And conversely, even if Zamir becomes convinced that we need to attack today, as long as Trump isn't ready, it won't happen."
"Forget Mamdani. Look at Abdul El-Sayed"
The discussion broadened to Israel's diplomatic challenges. Segal warned that Israel had replaced its pre-Oct. 7 security doctrine with another dangerous assumption: that military operations throughout the Middle East come at no cost.
He argued that Israel needed to prioritize its most important fronts and demonstrate a willingness to negotiate in Syria and Gaza. "In two years, there will probably be a president who is more hostile toward Israel. We have to make progress with Trump's peace plan because the alternative is worse."
Segal also warned about the gap between widespread Israeli opposition to a Palestinian state and trends in the US, where, he said, support is growing for a single, non-Jewish state between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea.
Senor pointed to another potential political threat to Israel: the rise of Abdul El-Sayed within the Democratic Party. "When I was in Israel a month ago, everyone was asking me about Mamdani," Senor recalled. "I told them, forget Mamdani. The person you need to focus on is Abdul El-Sayed."
Unlike New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Senor said, El-Sayed could run for US president as early as 2028 and potentially win. Senor argued that El-Sayed had not moderated his positions against Israel even during the general election campaign and characterized his campaign as antisemitic. According to Senor, the success of a politician holding such positions in Michigan, a swing state Trump won twice, points to the potential for national support.
He added that El-Sayed could influence foreign policy through his work in the Senate and suggested that, even if he did not run for president himself, he could be selected as a vice presidential candidate. "People tell me that's ridiculous because he's young. Tell that to Barack Obama, who was elected to the Senate in 2004 and was already running for president in 2007. Or JD Vance, who was elected in 2022 and was Trump's running mate by 2024."
"Israelis overreact to right-wing podcasters"
Senor also addressed the Democrats' victory in the US midterm elections. Although the results reflected a broad rejection of the Republican brand, he argued that the sheer scale of the Democratic victory could actually diminish the influence of the more radical progressive elements seeking to undermine US-Israel relations. "If the Democrats have 54 or 56 senators, Chuck Schumer won't be all that dependent on Abdul El-Sayed," he explained.
At the same time, Senor sought to ease Israeli concerns about the growing prominence of anti-Israel rhetoric on the American Right. He argued that Israelis tend to place excessive weight on statements by outspoken Republican podcasters who do not necessarily represent the views of most Republican voters.
Senor cited an ABC exit poll that he said showed approximately 80% of Republican voters believe US support for Israel is either at the right level or insufficient. "Those who want to reduce support for Israel are in the minority," he stressed. "We tend to exaggerate the significance of what high-profile right-wing podcasters are saying, but they don't necessarily represent the views of Republican voters."
"The greatest danger is that Jews will simply drift away from Judaism"
Segal then raised the issue of rising antisemitism in the United States. He recalled visiting his grandparents in Beverly Hills as a child, during a period he described as the golden age of American Jewry. "When I was a kid, there was almost no antisemitism. Today, 20 or 30 years later, it feels increasingly frightening to be Jewish," he said, asking Senor whether that perception was exaggerated.
"I don't think it's exaggerated," Senor replied. "Today, there's an effort to make Jews feel uncomfortable with their identity. There was a time when Jews didn't have to think twice about joining a Jewish organization or expressing their Jewish identity publicly. Today, they spend far too much time wondering whether they should keep it out of sight."
According to Senor, the deeper danger lies not only in antisemitism itself but in its effects on the younger generation. "There are too many young people who didn't grow up with pride in their Jewish identity or a connection to Israel. When they encounter hostility, they may decide it's simply not worth the effort. They won't necessarily become hostile toward Judaism or Israel. They'll simply become indifferent and drift away. That's the greatest risk in my view, and it has implications for Israel as well."
"The real change in Israeli politics will come in three or four years"
Toward the end of the conversation, the two returned to Israeli politics. Segal highlighted what he sees as a contradiction between the profound changes Israeli society has undergone since Oct. 7 and voting patterns that have remained almost entirely unchanged.
According to Segal, only a tiny proportion of voters switched between the political blocs, with differences in election results stemming mainly from new voters, changes in turnout and the effects of the electoral threshold. "If you looked at the polling stations in Sderot and Be'eri, you wouldn't know anything had happened. Sderot still votes overwhelmingly for Likud, and Be'eri still votes for the center-left."
Nevertheless, Segal emphasized that the composition of the new Knesset already reflects the effects of the war.
He pointed to MKs who were wounded in combat and bereaved parents who had entered parliament, noting that 12 of the Knesset's 120 members are parents who lost children serving in the military or civilians murdered in terrorist attacks. "How can there be such a huge gap between the character of the new Knesset and the fact that we once again cannot form a coalition?" he asked.
Segal predicted that the deeper political transformation is still to come. "I think what will really shake our political system to its foundations will happen in three or four years," he said. "In the next election, without the current leadership, we'll see the real difference between before and after October 7. That will be the first time we'll see genuine agreement between the two sides. This time it was too early. People are still living in the past because we still have the leadership of the past. In three or four years, we'll see a new generation of leaders, and then Israeli politics will become interesting, unlike today."
