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With the ayatollah regime facing an existential crisis, Iranian missiles have struck Saudi Aramco facilities, prompting a regional energy shutdown and drawing European military forces into a burgeoning US-led coalition.
While Israel would prefer to see the regime in Tehran collapse, Middle Eastern states are hoping for the exact opposite. The reason? A civil war in Iran could trigger refugee waves and disrupt key shipping lanes. Yet, if the regime falls, a pro Western government could emerge as a regional power.
This is the largest US deployment in the Middle East since 2003. Two aircraft carriers, 13 destroyers and dozens of fighter jets. In Israel, F-22s are already on the runway and refueling aircraft are stationed at Ben-Gurion Airport. In the Gulf, assets evacuated from vulnerable bases in Qatar while all US vessels leave Bahrain port for open sea.
From a Supreme Court tariff blow to Epstein anger among young voters, a convergence of domestic pressures is forcing the White House to weigh military action against the political cost of getting it wrong.
Expelled from the White House, Ukraine's president learned to work Trump, fired his all-powerful chief of staff amid a $100 million bribery scandal, and rebuilt his inner circle as Kyiv enters what could be a decisive year.
It is clear that militarily, Iran is not capable of challenging the United States militarily. The US, then, must answer one basic question: What does success look like, and at what cost?
With Tehran under pressure and the Middle East ablaze, Beijing plays a long game, supplying oxygen while refusing to walk into the fire.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff are expected to meet in Geneva for substantive negotiations based on weeks of indirect message exchanges. The core gap: Tehran believes Trump fears war while Washington is convinced a military buildup will force Iranian concessions. For now, escalation appears more likely than a deal.
Ankara is using nuclear technology strictly for civilian purposes, but the infrastructure it is building could, under certain conditions, later help pave the way toward military applications. As long as the current president remains in power, efforts to edge closer to a nuclear weapons capability are unlikely to stop. The question is how long it would take, and how Israel should respond.
Despite the overwhelming power and clear superiority of the US naval force, Iran has not been deterred from issuing threats against American vessels. Earlier this week, a billboard in the heart of Tehran depicted a destroyed US aircraft carrier, while official Iranian media outlets aired threatening videos throughout the week. The question is: how realistic is Iran’s ability actually strike an aircraft carrier?
