Hamas likely believed that had Israel subscribed to small-scale approach, they could build on the success of October 7 and effect a change that would result in a new “equation” between the organization and the Jewish state. Meaning, the release of the imprisoned terrorists, lifting the blockade, and stopping the normalization process between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Shifa Hospital is considered the nerve center of the tunnel and command network in the northern Strip, a place where it is doubtful whether Hamas leadership thought Israel would ever dare to enter.
It will need to tread carefully in dealing with several combustible issues, foremost among them being the Shifa Hospital and the ever-increasing threat from Hezbollah.
Yahya Sinwar prepared for Israel's aerial attack. It's probable that he also prepared for a ground confrontation, but it's doubtful if he estimated that Israel would act with such force.
Israel should consider agreeing to very limited humanitarian ceasefires, both in terms of time and location. In this arrangement, Israel will be able to monitor all aid entering the Gaza Strip and continue fighting in northern Gaza.
The most immediate goal should be the dismantling of Hamas' rule and neutralization of its ability to return and take control in the future. This requires eliminating its leaders, capturing its commanders, damaging its cells, and stripping its legitimacy in the eyes of the world and its own people. The second is the full disengagement from Gaza.
The IDF is striving to maintain combat readiness and aims to create a ground operation that will lead to the dismantling of Hamas. Simultaneously, this operation is intended to exert heavy pressure on the terrorist organization to secure the release of the captives from the October 7 onslaught.
The prime minister is right that no one had given him an early warning or shown him signs about Hamas' intention to launch a war on October 7. But Hamas does not operate in a vacuum, and this attack did not emerge out of nowhere.
It is unclear what Tehran's endgame is. Among the scenarios are that Hamas and Israel continue to fight "until one of them is eliminated," and a protracted war in Gaza where each side continues to receive support, assistance, and backing from external actors.
“Every paradigm is good for its own time. A good strategist asks every day whether his strategy is still valid and Netanyahu didn’t do that," a former general says.