Analysis

It is likely that Monday’s assassination, which Iran attributes to Israel, was meant to send Tehran the message that Israel’s patience is running out.

Experts in negotiations believe that Hamas now needs to stew in its own juices, see that Israel is determined, that we are also willing to go all the way. But Israel is negotiating with the devil, and we need to bring back everyone possible whenever possible, with the thought that tomorrow such a prospect might no longer be possible.

The ground maneuver may have pushed Hamas into a corner and advanced the ceasefire in battle, but there is no basis for the claim that this could have culminated with the release of the captives. Since the conflict began, Israel has successfully reached two bodies of captives and only one live captive (Ori Megidish), despite considerable efforts invested in the matter.

The US administration continues to view the Palestinian Authority as the lesser of two evils compared to Hamas. This shows that they haven't learned the lesson of the misconception that led to Oct. 7, the failed deterrence, and the self-delusion that you can buy off Hamas.

Israel is facing a dilemma. On the one hand, the potential release of captives, even a few, is part of the moral imperative that saving one life is like saving the entire world. On the other hand, there is a clear understanding that Hamas is taking advantage of Israel's vulnerability for broader purposes, thereby hoping to avert the expansion of the Israeli military operation in the strip.

Anybody paying attention to him, both in his open announcements to the media and in closed briefings, fully understands that he recognizes that he is responsible. When he was presented with what former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said about responsibility, his reply was, “Nothing has changed.”

Hamas likely believed that had Israel subscribed to small-scale approach, they could build on the success of October 7 and effect a change that would result in a new “equation” between the organization and the Jewish state. Meaning, the release of the imprisoned terrorists, lifting the blockade, and stopping the normalization process between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Shifa Hospital is considered the nerve center of the tunnel and command network in the northern Strip, a place where it is doubtful whether Hamas leadership thought Israel would ever dare to enter. 

It will need to tread carefully in dealing with several combustible issues, foremost among them being the Shifa Hospital and the ever-increasing threat from Hezbollah.