Analysis

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun may be willing to reach an agreement with Israel, but not for the reasons Israelis assume. Like other actors in the region, he understands that Israel cannot be defeated on the battlefield. But on the diplomatic front, Israel suffers from inconsistency and often ends up accepting US dictations. If Israel wants real peace, it must insist on addressing the roots of the conflict: Hezbollah's weapons, reforming the Lebanese army and dismantling the Palestinian camps in Lebanon.

Since Oct. 7, two opposing forces have been at work in Jordan. On one side: the strengthening of the Muslim Brotherhood and calls to scrap the peace treaty with Israel. On the other: criticism of Iran and growing suspicion toward Gazans. How does the royal court plan to resolve the paradox?

Despite Iran’s declarations, most of the war’s objectives were achieved. Iran emerges from the war weakened economically and militarily, but its success will be measured only by the outcome of the negotiations. In Israel, officials are clinging to promises they received from the Trump administration, but fear that the motivation to return to war if Iran refuses will be limited.

Since the war began, Egypt has walked a tightrope: attacking Hamas with one hand while fueling anti-Israel propaganda with the other. It is struggling to preserve its status, yet drifting into Qatar's orbit. Weakened, but somehow strengthened too. What will be the price of its silence and avoidance?

The Iranian attack on Qatar has brought the emirate's ties with Hamas and its mouthpieces to a crossroads. Those who echoed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps propaganda instead of backing their host were silenced. Doha is promising a reckoning, but removing the terrorist organization's leadership is still a long way off.

Amid reports that the Mossad chief presented removing the ayatollahs as an achievable goal, it is worth to remember that uprisings are not sparked from the outside. To mobilize a mass opposition, one must identify an existing crack, then widen it. How is that done, and why has it not yet worked in Iran?

With tanker traffic near zero and fuel prices rising, Washington faces hard choices – escort missions, coastline seizure, or targeting Iran's Kharg oil island – as military advisors say time is running short. John Jensen, a former Marine Corps general and senior adviser to the Kinetica Fund: “One of the most effective tools available to an American commander.”

Cairo has so far taken on the role of mediator in the war with Iran, but local media is clearly leaning toward Tehran. For now, Egypt appears to prefer preserving the current balance of power in the region.

Iranian attacks against the United Arab Emirates are causing significant damage, and patience in Abu Dhabi appears to be wearing thin. Even if the US and Israel destroy most of the missiles, one threat will continue to worry Gulf states until a new player joins the fight against the ayatollahs.

Thousands of targets, a divided battlespace, and Gulf states on the brink – how Israel and America are waging their first-ever side-by-side war.