Iran’s regime can point to two significant achievements in recent days. Yet without a profound change in policy, the stability it has regained is only temporary, and the challenge to the regime is likely to return. Senior figures in Iran understand what is required to stabilize the regime, but Ali Khamenei’s ideological rigidity could ultimately bring it to ruin.

The brutal suppression of the protests led to their decline in Iran, but without any change in the country’s underlying conditions, it is only a matter of time before they return. Israel’s clear interest is to stay out of events inside Iran, but if Tehran continues producing missiles at a high pace, Israel may have no choice but to initiate another campaign.

Brutal repression, isolation from the outside world and a sustained campaign to smear protesters have, for now, halted demonstrations. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei accused the US and lashed out at President Donald Trump, while Washington spoke of “understandings.” Conflicting reports persist over the scale of the killing and the protests, amid assessments that the calm may prove temporary.

"I don't understand why Israel is sitting on the sidelines," Dr. Saeed Ghasseminejad, one of the prominent figures among Iranian exiles active in the US, said. "After all, you have an interest in the current regime falling and being replaced by an alternative regime, which would necessarily be more friendly. This is an opportunity that won't return. Israel can help the Iranian people overthrow the regime. This is the moment."

The White House has formally revealed the members of the “Gaza Executive Board,” tasked with overseeing the implementation of the second phase of his plan to end the war in Gaza.